The recent explosion claimed by Hezbollah targeting Israeli soldiers was not only an embarrassmentto the state, it could be a harbinger of things to come as Israel reportedly seeks to assist the infiltration of takfiri militants into southern Lebanon via the Golan Heights in order to ignite a Sunni-Shiite war.
The operation was named for the Hezbollah explosives expert Hassan Ali Haider, who died while dismantling an Israeli spy device along the southern coast earlier this year. However, the revenge operation on the border was an embarrassment to the state by revealing that is has virtually no control over decisions related to war and peace, and because the blast occurred in an area patrolled by UNIFIL.
In addition to the embarrassment, the attack raised concerns that the Army could be dragged into a confrontation with Israel at a time when it is struggling to contain terrorist threats in the northern Bekaa Valley around Arsal and in Tripoli.
Political and military experts who spoke to The Daily Star were unanimous in their reading that a war with Israel would be disastrous at this time given the current situation in the region and Lebanon specifically. The Army has its hands full fighting Islamists who are reportedly plotting to target Shiite communities in order to open routes for militants to stock up on supplies ahead of winter.
The experts also questioned the seriousness of Hezbollah’s stated plan to reclaim the Shebaa Farms, especially in light of Syrian Vice President Farouq al-Sharaa’s assertion before the United Nations that the area lies in Syria.
The border region once known as “Fatah Land” for the strength of the Palestinian resistance is currently under Hezbollah’s region of influence, but that could change as information suggests the Israelis have been facilitating the infiltration of takfiri forces into the area from the Golan Heights, monitoring their movements and even providing them with hot meals, arms, equipment and medical treatment. The Israelis are reportedly counting on igniting a war between Islamist militants and Hezbollah along the southern border in which it would be a gleeful spectator.
Israel is hoping that fighting between the Nusra Front, ISIS and similar takfiri groups on the one hand and Hezbollah on the other will ignite a latent militancy in the Palestinian camps in Lebanon and among Syrian refugees, many of whom completed compulsory military service and have military training. The Israelis would then furnish them with weapons in order to fan a Sunni-Shiite war.
The end goal for Israel is to establish a security buffer zone in the Golan Heights and Lebanon controlled by terrorist groups. In this way, Israel is hoping to weaken Hezbollah in a war of attrition and shift the balance of deterrence between the resistance group and Israel.
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