As Hezbollah’s dialogue with the Future Movement looks to be moving on the right track and has made “significant progress,” according to a senior political source, the party – along with its allies – is waging a crucial military campaign to restore the control of Syrian President Bashar Assad on the southern strip of his country.
“It’s a priority for Assad to maintain a presence on the border with Israel,” the source told The Daily Star this week, saying Hezbollah and Iran have taken upon themselves the task of helping Assad forces regain the southern territory stretching from Qunaitra in the west to Deraa in the east.
The fighting in south Syria has temporarily eclipsed the likelihood of the Lebanese party launching an offensive in the Syrian region of Qalamoun on the border with Lebanon.
“Hezbollah has not made any decisions regarding Qalamoun, but the party believes they must prepare for it and they are ready for it,” the source said, adding that once it commences, the Qalamoun battle will be a brutal one and will have repercussions on Lebanon.
In the meantime, the battle in southern Syria has gained so much significance, the source noted, adding that for the first time, Iran is openly engaged in the fight.
Unlike in Aleppo and Homs, where the Revolutionary Guard worked undercover, Tehran is publicly mourning fighters who fall in south Syria.
“Iran is sending a clear political message to Israel,” the source said. “Iran is saying: This battle [in south Syria] concerns me and it’s a direct battle with you Israelis.”
Strategically speaking, Assad and his allies are looking to insulate Damascus from concerns and ward off troubles coming from Israel and Jordan in order to focus on the struggle with Turkey in the north.
The source, however, argues that the war in Syria will be a very long and protracted one unless the United States decides to move toward a solution.
For the source, ISIS in its current form was not a viable one. The only role the group could play is that of prolonging the crisis and thus increasing the costs.
Who funded the formation of ISIS was a key question, according to the source. It was inconceivable that ISIS constructed its might from selling oil barrels from fields it took over in Iraq and Syria, the source said.
“Has anyone paid attention to all those identical vehicles ISIS uses?” the source asked.
“There is someone in this world who struck a deal with the Nissan company, bought 2,500 2014 model cars, transferred the money in cash and then sent the vehicles to Syria via Turkey.”
Regarding talks between Iran and the P5+1 regarding the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, the source spoke about major breakthroughs, revealing that Tehran has devised the framework for the implementation of the deal.
“[U.S. President Barack] Obama is obviously very enthusiastic about a deal being inked and the Iranian population is closely following up on the progress of negotiations now that contact with the Americans has become a normal occurrence,” he said.
“They [Iranians] even start wondering and asking questions when Zarif and Kerry don’t meet,” the source joked, in reference to Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.
In a bid to counter Iran’s growing influence in the region, an Arab-Turkish alliance, a sort of a “neo-Muslim Brotherhood” grouping was in the making, the source said. King Abdullah of Jordan is the project’s main lobbyist and he is operating upon the direct orders of the U.S. and Pakistan, the source said.
The Jordanian king has already brought up the issue with the new administration in Riyadh. “But there is nothing tangible yet from the Saudi side.”
On the domestic scene, the source stated that while fears of the security situation degenerating were plausible, there were no “structural” risks. “No cities or towns will be overrun and no internal fighting will take place.”
Security breaches will still occur, the source said, but various security bodies have upped the ante in terms of adopting deterrent measures.
“The umbrella that has safeguarded the country’s security and stability still stands.”
Politically, Lebanon’s presidential election still does not figure among the priorities of external powers. “Unless there are dramatic changes externally or internally that make it imperative for a president to be elected,” the source said, “then it becomes easy.”
The last Future Movement-Hezbollah dialogue session was fruitful, the source said. Parties engaged in a discussion over the candidacy of Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun. Reasons behind Hezbollah’s decision to back Aoun, on the one hand, and those behind the Future Movement’s opposition to his candidacy, on the other, were explored.
The source said that while the Future-Hezbollah talks would not lead to the election of a new president; dialogue would pave the way for the right conditions to elect one. “When circumstances are ripe to elect a new president, conditions would have been prepared and each group would be well-aware of the boundaries that must not be crossed,” he added.
The source explained that these circumstances were external ones. He labeled the French bid to break the presidential stalemate and similar initiatives as “childish.”
The source disclosed that Aoun was highly optimistic about his election prospects. The former Lebanese Army commander has in fact finalized logistical preparations for his move to the Baabda Presidential Palace and has even picked the team that would accompany him.
“Save the fact that nothing is impossible in Lebanese politics,” the source said.
“I think Aoun becoming the new president is impossible.”
