Obama told me so: 11/16/14

Sunday, 16 November 2014

Lebanon transportation minister launches probe into road flooding

South Lebanon blast wounds shepherd, kills flock

A hang grenade explosion in south Lebanon wounds a shepherd and kills several of his sheep in the Arqoub area Sunday,...

ISIS will not find reservoir of recruits in Lebanon: expert

BEIRUT: Although a number of Lebanese have joined the ranks of ISIS, the terrorist group will not find a deep reservoir of recruits in Lebanon, according to leading security expert Ali Soufan. Soufan, a Lebanese-American who was previously a special agent with the United States Federal Bureau of Investigations, says Lebanon does not provide a “nurturing environment” for those seeking to wage violent jihad with groups like ISIS or Al-Qaeda.

The majority of the foreign fighters in Syria hail from predominantly Sunni countries with relative religious homogeneity, Soufan explained. Lebanon, however, is more of a confessional patchwork where an appreciable percent of the population supports dialogue and peaceful coexistence.

“You don’t have these issues like in some other countries where the ‘other’ doesn’t have the right to exist or even breathe,” Soufan said in an exclusive phone conversation with The Daily Star. “That takfiri concept is not mainstream” in Lebanon.

According to a report published recently published by Soufan’s eponymous consultancy firm the Soufan Group, more than 50 percent of the foreign fighters who have joined ISIS hail from five countries: Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Jordan and Turkey.

“I don’t think that Lebanon will ever be in the top five countries” contributing foreign fighters to ISIS, said Soufan, a Beirut native.

Straight talking and well versed in the minutiae of Middle Eastern politics, Soufan is a seasoned expert in regional terrorism.

While he was born and raised in Beirut, Soufan emigrated with his family to the United States during the Civil War.

He applied to the FBI as part of a bet with his college fraternity brothers, but was ultimately accepted to the agency. Soufan quickly distinguished himself, and proved to be a crucial asset as the U.S. sought to track Al-Qaeda’s shadowy network across the globe both before and after the Sept. 11 attacks.

If G.I. Joe, all biceps and bravado, was once the epitome of American valor, Soufan came to represent a shrewder, more worldly approach to national security.

In his book, “Black Banners,” (which was reviewed by both the FBI and the CIA prior to publishing) Soufan recounts reciting hadiths to Al-Qaeda prisoners and debating theology with terrorists.

Soufan was dubbed “an American hero” by his colleagues after tirelessly questioning Al-Qaeda suspects in the immediate aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks, according to a 2006 profile in The New Yorker magazine.

Vehemently against the use of torture, Soufan sought instead to outwit his interrogation subjects.

“People ask what is the most important weapon we have against Al-Qaeda,” Soufan writes in his book, “and I reply ‘Knowledge.’”

Since leaving the FBI in 2005, Soufan has sought to share his knowledge with high-profile clients and the public at large.

The Soufan Group, stacked with former intelligence analysts and counterterrorism officials, has emerged as a leading authority on ISIS, and was among the first to publically discuss the flow of foreign fighters to the group last June.

“At the beginning, nobody wanted to deal with this issue, to even look at it, until ISIS took over Mosul,” Soufan explained.

Since ISIS’ rapid advance this summer, however, Soufan has the world’s attention. When discussing ISIS, the U.S. government, the United Nations and leading news publications have cited data gathered by the Soufan Group.

“I think we contributed significantly to raise the awareness of this phenomenon,” Soufan said.

Through he does not believe that Lebanese will join ISIS en masse, Soufan cautions against underestimating the militant group’s abilities and regional reach. “This is the wild card here: between Iraq and Syria, ISIS controls an area about five times the size of Lebanon,” he said.

“They are very strategic in what they are doing. They’re not people just jumping on trucks saying ‘Hey, let’s do it.”

It remains unclear what role Lebanon will play in ISIS’ regional strategy. A report published by the Soufan Group claims that “in due course it may try to move into Jordan and Lebanon, where it already has supporters.”

Soufan has high hopes, however, that Lebanon’s problems can be solved in the political arena, rather than the battlefield. Though the deep division in the country between the rival March 8 and March 14 camps “might take on the ground level a sectarian tone on both sides, after all is said and done it’s a political matter,” he said.

Weekend murder stirs tensions in Baalbek

BAALBEK, Lebanon: The killing of Nadimeh Fakhri and the wounding of her son and husband in Btedaai, west of Baalbek have opened the door to security chaos in the Bekaa Valley.

It has emerged that the Fakhri family is Christian and the murderers belong to the Shiite Jaafar clan, which exerts huge pressure on the area’s political, security and tribal local community, in particular Hezbollah.

The criminals are wanted by the security forces and were fleeing extensive raids by the Lebanese Army in the Dar al-Wasaa area when they committed the crime.

The husband is in critical condition. The son, Romeo, was hit by two bullets but is in stable condition.

Speaker Nabih Berri Sunday voiced support for the security plan being implemented by the Lebanese Army in the Bekaa Valley.

“Our people in the Bekaa have been harmed by kidnappings, thefts and other acts at the hands of some thugs in the region,” Berri was quoted as saying by visitors at his Ain al-Tineh residence.

He said the Army had a free hand to crack down on outlaws in the Bekaa region, adding that political parties and tribes would not give protection to any criminal.

The incident prompted the local community and the residents of Deir al-Ahmar and other neighboring areas to meet in the Baalbek-Deir al- Ahmar Maronite Diocese, headed by Bishop Semaan Atallah.

The head of the union of municipalities Milad Aaqoury, the mayor of Deir al-Ahmar and the mukhtars of the area were among those who attended the meeting.

After the meeting a statement was released, saying: “The ‘outlaws’ committed their crime while they were fleeing toward the Baalbek valley and as they passed through the village of Btedaai. They went into the Fakhri family’s house while they were sleeping, with the intent of taking their SUV, which led to the hideous murder that took place. We consider this assault an assault on every house in the area.

“We hold the Jaafar clan responsible for the crime ... We ask them to present those involved in the crime to the security forces in order for us to put them on trial and punish them so we can eliminate strife.”

The statement demanded that all Lebanese institutions remove any protection afforded to criminals and called on the Lebanese Army command to continue its security operation to the fullest extent in order to strengthen its presence in the area.

The Jaafar clan also held a meeting Sunday, to discuss the demand to hand over the perpetrators, and to coordinate the clan’s stance on the crime.

Speaking to The Daily Star, one of the leaders of the Jaafar clan, Abu Assad Jaafar, explained his version of the incident.

He said some of the wanted members of his group were on good terms with the Fakhri family and were used to hiding in their house while on the run from the Army. So when one of their cars broke down while they were being chased Saturday, the Jaafar members had gone to the Fakhri house to try to get a substitute car.

Events only turned violent when the family would not give it to them, he said.

The Jaafars issued a statement late Sunday condemning the killing and urging the judiciary to pursue investigations into the issue. They said they would not accept any attacks on their Christian “brethren.”

The extended Fakhri family protested at the entrance of Deir al-Ahmar-Shilfa near Baalbek, where they blocked the main road. Father Hanna Rahmi, Aaqoury, Btedaai Mayor Samir Fakhri and Bashwat Mayor Hamid Kayrouz joined them, along with representatives from the local area.

Rahmi, deputy general of the Baalbek-Deir al-Ahmar Maronite Diocese, emphasized that no one should cover up for these criminals.

“Those responsible for the crime are known to be from our loved ones, the Jaafar clan,” Rahmi said. “They should take responsibility to protect coexistence.”

Patrick Sobhi Fakhri, another son of the family, said the family would not be satisfied by mere statements of condemnation from the Jaafar family.

He also slammed the government’s silence: “We love the government and we are under its umbrella, but what the government is saying today is protect yourself on your own. We want the government to protect us.”

The motorcade for the funeral took off from Fakhri’s house and went to St. Nahra Church in Btedaai, where a Mass was held at 3 p.m. by Bishop Atallah, his assistant Elias Rahan and Father Rahmi, in the presence of religious, political and local officials.

“These crimes are rare and are classified as terror attacks,” Atallah said. “While we were afraid of terrorism on the border, here it is coming from inside and targeting an otherwise calm town.”

Presidential vote on back burner until early next year

Despite repeated calls by international powers on rival Lebanese factions to elect a new president soon, coupled with Speaker Nabih Berri’s internal moves to break the 5-month-old deadlock, political sources ruled out any breakthrough on a new president before early next year.

Information cited by Western diplomatic sources, however, points to a breakthrough in the presidential crisis on the horizon.

A Western diplomat said the continued linkage of the Lebanese presidential issue to regional developments would definitely lead to losses by political parties that are obstructing the election of a successor to former President Michel Sleiman, whose six-year term ended on May 25.

“If the Lebanese ship sinks, all its passengers will drown. Therefore, the Lebanese must search for all means and ways to rescue their country from sinking in the sea of rough regional events,” the diplomat said.

According to the diplomat, a long-awaited dialogue between the Future Movement and Hezbollah would kick off sooner or later, but it would not be quick because its agenda has not yet been prepared.

Last week’s visit by former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, the head of the parliamentary Future bloc, and Nader Hariri, chief of staff of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, to Berri signaled that the Future-Hezbollah dialogue would be launched soon.

Sources at Berri’s residence in Ain al-Tineh insisted that the speaker’s positive signals on the presidential deadlock were based on ongoing regional activity.

The U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations are making progress, albeit at a slow pace, and the continued talks, even without achieving results, confirm the positive atmosphere between the two sides, the sources said.

They added that there would be no backward movement considering U.S. President Barack Obama’s determination to achieve a victory, even a moral one, from the negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program.

For its part, Iran is hoping for the best from its talks with the Americans and Europeans, aspiring to reach an agreement that would eventually lift international economic sanctions on it, the sources said.

Also, at the regional level, the sources noted positive developments with regard to the nearly 4-year-old civil war in Syria.

The sources cited a proposal by U.N. peace envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura to freeze fighting in some Syrian areas and the entry of Russia and Egypt into the Syrian crisis in an attempt to bring the warring factions together at the negotiating table, a move that could be similar to Geneva-III peace conference.

Syrian President Bashar Assad said last week that he was ready to study se Mistura’s “action plan” that proposed to “freeze” fighting in local Syrian areas to allow for aid deliveries and to lay the groundwork for peace talks.

In addition to the Syrian crisis and the Iranian nuclear dispute, a breakthrough has begun to emerge in the situation in Yemen amid signs of a joint American-Saudi-Iranian will to restore political life to the war-ravaged country, the sources said.

However, despite all these positive signals, political sources said that behind Berri’s optimism about breaking the presidential deadlock was an attempt to cover up the recent extension of Parliament’s mandate for two years and seven months.

Moreover, the sources suggested that perhaps the speaker wanted to cover up the institutional disintegration that began with the vacancy in the presidency, and the government, which stands at the edge of the abyss after Prime Minister Tammam Salam declared that his Cabinet was working at half steam, in addition to paralysis in public departments.

According to the sources, nothing new has happened in the presidential issue, which will remain on the back burner at least until the beginning of next year, when the U.S.-led international coalition to fight ISIS has reviewed the outcome of its airstrikes against the militant group in Syria and Iraq.

This requires an agreement with Iran following statements by U.S. officials stressing the need to include Tehran in the war against terrorism provided that it improves its relations with regional states, the sources said.

Hopes are also pinned on the anticipated dialogue between the Future Movement and Hezbollah to defuse sectarian tensions and speed up the election of a president.

Senior sources in the Future Movement told The Daily Star that any bilateral, tripartite or collective dialogue between the two sides should be held under the president’s sponsorship.

Given the conflicting attitudes between the Future Movement and Hezbollah following the latter’s military intervention in Syria and the continued dispute over the party’s arsenal, any dialogue must begin with an agreement among the various Lebanese parties on the presidential election because this matter alone can defuse political tensions in the street, the sources said.

The sources called for a productive dialogue with Hezbollah, recalling the “conflict management” that was reached with the party with the formation of Salam’s government.

“Our concerns are currently confined to hamburger, garbage collection and mobile phones, while the fate of the Taif agreement, the security of the border with Syria, the illegitimate arms and the presidential vacuum which threatens Lebanon’s National Pact are issues not being discussed because raising them would lead to the breakup of the government and the country,” the sources said.

They called for the swift election of a consensus president who would give priority to the implementation of U.N. resolutions on Lebanon and maintain the country’s relations with brotherly Arab and Western states.