No solution to presidential crisis: Geagea
The presidential election crisis continues with no solution in sight, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said in...
Saturday, 7 March 2015
How To Oust A House Speaker (Hint: Don't Even Try)
House Speaker John Boehner's Boehner's job is secure, despite passing a bill to avert a shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security — a bill that most of his Republican colleagues opposed. J. Scott Applewhite/AP hide caption
itoggle caption J. Scott Applewhite/AP
House Speaker John Boehner's Boehner's job is secure, despite passing a bill to avert a shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security — a bill that most of his Republican colleagues opposed.
J. Scott Applewhite/AP
Here's one story in Washington that just won't to go away.
It's the tale of conservatives who are frustrated with House Speaker John Boehner and want to replace him mid-session.
The latest murmurs of a coup surfaced after more than 50 Republicans voted against Boehner's plan last week to avert a partial-shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security.
But ousting a sitting speaker is nearly impossible, and that may be why the would-be Republican plotters aren't trying to make it happen.
Why is it so hard?
Step one would be a motion to vacate the speaker's chair, says University of Maryland political scientist Frances Lee.
"It's a privileged motion," Lee explains. "Any member who wants to offer it can offer it."
That seems easy enough. But the motion to vacate the speaker's chair would be met quickly with another procedural motion, a motion to table.
Plus, keep in mind speakers aren't just elected by the party that controls the House of Representatives, they're elected by the entire House. For the plot to work, the band of Republicans that wants to get rid of Boehner would need Democrats to go along.
But in this case, the slice of the GOP that's grumbling about Boehner is particularly conservative, so it's highly unlikely that the group could find common ground with Democrats.
"In this case, those who are unhappy with the speaker are on the right side of the Republican party, and not in a good position to coalesce with members across the aisle around another candidate," Lee says.
That could leave the whole plan dead in the water.
But for argument's sake, say the motion to vacate succeeds and Boehner is successfully pushed out. Now what?
"The difficulty, of course, is finding someone who can garner a majority," Lee says.
It's not enough to just say Boehner needs to go. House lawmakers would need to find someone to replace him — which is easier said than done.
Twenty-five lawmakers cast votes against Boehner in January's speaker election. But the next-most popular candidate only received 12 votes, a tiny fraction of the number needed to elect a new speaker.
Even if things got to the point of new nominations, Republicans who back Boehner would probably just nominate him again, and they say he has enough support to block any other Republican.
"Just the Republicans who are dissatisfied with Boehner right now, they're not a majority of the House of Representatives," Lee says. "They're not even a majority of the Republican Party in the House of Representatives."
Here's an alternate scenario: Boehner could step aside, embarrassed, and Republicans could agree to rally behind someone else. But who would it be? No one has made a serious attempt to position themselves for the speakership.
That leaves us back where we started, with a group of conservatives unhappy with a speaker they can do little about.
Lee put it this way: "So that's the difficulty they face. It's really a political difficulty more than it's a procedural difficulty."
So, can the House ditch its speaker mid-term?
Technically yes. In reality, conservatives aren't launching that plot any time soon.
More Jobs, Less Inflation Drive Down 'Misery' — So Where's The Joy?
Construction workers in Washington, D.C., in December. The latest jobs report will further drive the "misery index" to its lowest level in more than half a century. But economists say meager wages and big debts are still problems. Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images hide caption
itoggle caption Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images
Construction workers in Washington, D.C., in December. The latest jobs report will further drive the "misery index" to its lowest level in more than half a century. But economists say meager wages and big debts are still problems.
Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images
For decades, economists have tracked the "misery index," a simple formula that adds the unemployment rate to the inflation rate. The result equals how miserable — or not — you feel.
On Friday, the Labor Department released February's jobs report, and the good numbers will further drive down the misery index, already at its lowest level in more than a half-century, thanks to falling oil prices.
The White House cheered the 5.5 percent jobless rate, which was down two-tenths of a point. Employers added 295,000 paychecks, far more than most economists had forecast for the cold, snowy February.
"Job growth was robust and the national average workweek was steady," said Jason Furman, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
And yet no matter what the plunging misery index may suggest, a lot of people don't feel happiness rising. In fact in February, Conference Board's consumer confidence index showed that Americans had a darkening view of the coming six months. Why so glum?
This may be the answer: February's average hourly earnings rose by a meager 3 cents to $24.78. Over the past year, earnings were up just 2 percent.
And the number of long-term unemployed — people who have been without paychecks for 27 weeks or more — was "little changed" at 2.7 million in February.
In addition, many people remain too discouraged to apply for positions. The labor force participation rate — which measures both workers and job seekers — held at 62.8 percent. A few years ago, it was around 67 percent.
So if millions are not getting raises or finding jobs or even looking, is the misery index measuring the wrong stuff?
What The Misery Index Measures
To make your own judgment, let's step back. The misery measure was invented by Brookings scholar and economist Arthur Okun in the 1970s. He said that when jobs are plentiful and prices low, Americans feel better.
And historically, that's been true. During the "go-go" years of the mid-1960s, the index held around 6 as workers enjoyed a booming job market and low inflation.
But in the 1970s, misery started climbing. The index peaked at nearly 22 in 1980, when a recession and spiraling prices collided and helped end President Carter's re-election bid.
In the late 1990s, job growth and cheap oil pushed the index back down to a comfortable level — around 6 again.
But it didn't last. During the recent Great Recession, misery rode high on the back of double-digit unemployment.
Now the recession is over. Unemployment is way down. Plunging oil and commodity prices have sent the consumer price index down too — prices slid 0.1 percent in the 12-month period ending in January.
If a new CPI report, coming later this month, shows price pressures continued running at the same pace in February, then the result would be a super low misery index. Do the math: 5.5 (the current jobless rate) minus 0.1 (the annual deflation rate) would put the index at 5.4, a level that hasn't been seen since the mid-1950s.
And yet, retail and home sales have been disappointing. What gives?
What The Index Fails To Measure
The answer may be that the U.S. economy has gotten too complicated for such a simple formula. Back in the 1960s, factories could provide even low-skilled workers with decent paychecks. Today, workers with low or rusty skills must find opportunities in a high-tech economy, and compete with low-wage workers in other countries.
"The tepid pace of wage growth in February, 2 percent year over year, in a way nullifies the drop in the misery index," said John Canally, chief economic Strategist for LPL Financial.
Another factor: Americans are carrying debt loads that would have been unimaginable in earlier eras. For example, some 40 million carry student loans that total $1.2 trillion. Add up the student debt, credit card bills and mortgages, and it equals a glum consumer.
In fact, a lot of people would be better off if wages and prices increase. Here's why: Higher wages would make it easier to pay off bills, and rising home values would allow owners to sell at prices high enough to pay off old mortgages. Instead, they are stuck with meager raises and still-too-big mortgages.
"A hallmark of this recovery has been the tepid pace of wage growth," Canally said. Until workers find a way to make employers pay more, "the misery index may not be the best measure of consumer well-being," he said.
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South Lebanon volunteers plant 400 pine trees
LABAA, Lebanon: Students, volunteers and residents participated Saturday in the planting of 400 pine trees in the south Lebanon village of Labaa.
The activity was jointly organized by the municipality of Labaa and the NGO Forever Lebanon, which is aiming to plant 10,452 trees across Lebanon. The number corresponds to the square-meter area of Lebanon.
Around 50 schoolchildren, parents and volunteers from different groups and clubs participated in the action.
Saturday’s round of planting was the second in the 30,000 square meter natural reserve of Labaa, a village located in the southern district of Jezzine.
Forever Lebanon Founder Antoine Hwayek said his group had already planted 6,000 trees in three different regions.
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Suspected jihadi reveals terror plots: Lebanon Army
BEIRUT: A suspected militant has confessed to participating in attacks and bombings in Lebanon and revealed important information about terror plots and the activities of fellow jihadis, the Army said Saturday.
The military released a statement announcing that Syrian national Hasan Jamil Harba, who was arrested last month “for belonging to terrorist groups and attacking Army bases,” was referred to the judiciary Saturday.
The statement said Harba confessed to belonging to a jihadi group and that he had participated, planned and committed several attacks on Army and civilian targets on the Lebanese-Syrian border.
Harba confessed that he was behind a failed attack on someone from the Fliti family using a rigged car inside Arsal, and revealed that he had killed a number of Syrian nationals on the outskirts of Arsal.
“Important confessions [were obtained] about identities and locations of individuals that rig cars, and other security information related to the activities of terrorist groups,” the Army statement said.
The suspect said he headed an armed group that worked between the outskirts of Flita and Arsal in East Lebanon, and participated in a number of attacks on Army checkpoints at the entrances of Arsal from the east.
The man said he had pledged allegiance to a fundamentalist group and appointed a commander for the group inside Arsal last September. He was equipped with seven explosive devices and tasked with planting them near Army bases.
However, most of the bombs his cell planted were never detonated, the statement added.
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Beirut southern suburbs security plan imminent: reports
BEIRUT: A security plan for Beirut's southern suburbs, which are dominated by Hezbollah, will be launched during the coming two weeks, two newspapers reported Saturday.
“The plan has not been finalized or fully examined, but the lack of objections from any side to its implementation can be seen as a sign to go through with it,” Al-Akhbar quoted security sources as saying. “The estimations say we will not delay it for more than 15 days.”
Al-Mustaqbal also reported that the plan will be implemented within two weeks without elaborating.
According to the sources cited by Al-Akhbar, the security plan was discussed in the ongoing dialogue between the Future Movement and Hezbollah.
“The plan’s nature is different from the one that was implemented in Bekaa, because in the southern suburbs there are no dangerous fugitives from any side,” the sources said.
“The plan, which will be implemented by the Lebanese Army and [the Internal Security Forces], will not require coordination with [Hezbollah],” he added, saying the party would not intervene unless a problem necessitates it.
A report earlier this week said that Hezbollah had urged the authorities to stop the spread of weapons in the area, after a number of armed clashes between rival clans took place.
Interior Minister Nouhad Machnouk reportedly informed Beirut lawmakers who visited him Wednesday that his ministry has begun examining the logistics to put the southern suburbs’ security plan into action.
Last month, a joint operation between security agencies was carried out in the northern Bekaa region. The crack down led to the arrest of dozens, mostly for minor charges, and the confiscation of drugs, weapons and stolen vehicles.
Security forces deployed for the first time in the southern suburbs in September 2013 as part of a plan to replace checkpoints set up by Hezbollah following a series of deadly bombings that targeted the mostly-Shiite area.
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Lebanon's state of war requires military term extensions: Army chief
BEIRUT: Lebanese Army commander Gen. Jean Kahwagi plans to extend the terms of several ranking defense officials against protocol because Lebanon is at war, An-Nahar newspaper reported Saturday.
The Lebanese daily quoted Kahwagi’s visitors as saying that the Army chief is determined to renew the terms of all members of the Military Council.
He believes that the defense law supports such moves, and that it is part of his prerogatives “when the Army is in a battle.”
The extension of the term of Maj. Gen. Mohammad Khair, the Secretary General of the Higher Defense Council, was the first of these measures, the report said. Khair's term was extended last month by Defense Minister Samir Moqbel.
Kahwagi will also extend his own term and that of the Army’s Chief of Staff, Maj. Gen. Walid Sleiman.
However, he will not extend the term of Lebanese Commando Regiment chief Brig. Gen. Shamel Roukoz, who is the son-in-law of Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Michel Aoun.
Aoun, a former Army general, last month denounced Moqbel for extending the term of Khair, and described extensions in the military as unconstitutional.
An-Nahar had reported last month that Kahwagi would not extend Roukoz’s term because it was not under his prerogatives.
The report added that Kahwagi believes that the circumstances at the time of presidential elections will determine the name of the next president.
The new president would be a military man if the country remains at war with jihadis and an economist or businessman if the war is over, Kahwagi reportedly told visitors.
But the military chief does not see an end to the battles coming anytime soon, according to the report.
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