BEIRUT: The year 2014 will without a doubt go down in the annals of Lebanese history as the year that saw Lebanon getting sucked further into the Syrian war amid an escalation of sectarian and political tensions linked to the conflict next door.
Perhaps the biggest security challenge that faced Lebanon in the outgoing year was a growing threat from Islamist militants who briefly overran the northeastern town of Arsal in August after deadly fighting with the Lebanese Army, in the most serious spillover of the Syrian war into Lebanese territory.
To date, the Lebanese Army is locked in an open battle against ISIS and Nusra Front militants who are still holding 25 soldiers and policemen hostage after capturing them during the Arsal clashes. The militants are holed up along with the servicemen in the rugged mountains of Arsal near the border with Syria.
Lebanon also faced a tough political challenge in 2014 when former President Michel Sleiman’s six-year tenure ended on May 25 and Parliament has since been unable to choose a successor due to a lack of quorum, thus plunging the country into a presidential vacuum, now in its seventh month.
The vacancy in the country’s top Christian post has paralyzed Parliament legislation and threatened to cripple the work of the government, which, in addition to its executive powers, is also exercising the president’s prerogatives until a new head of state is elected.
In what was seen as a major blow to Lebanon’s democratic system, the country failed twice to hold parliamentary elections on time, with lawmakers citing security concerns and the failure to agree on a new electoral law as a main reason.
Instead, lawmakers extended Parliament’s mandate in November for two years and seven months, making it a full four-year mandate after the first extension of 17 months in May last year.
On the economic front, Lebanon’s struggling economy, already burdened by a soaring public debt, was further sapped by the flow of an estimated 1.5 Syrian refugees, causing a severe strain on the country’s public services, including health, education, electricity and water, in addition to posing security problems.
According to the Finance Ministry, Lebanon’s public debt reached $66 billion in December, or 148 percent of the country’s GDP.
Economists are projecting a 2.5 percent GDP growth in 2015, compared to 1.8 percent growth in 2014, according to the International Monetary Fund.
TERRORIST THREAT However, analysts and experts said that the militants’ growing threat to Lebanon’s security and prevention of much-feared Sunni-Shiite strife are the toughest challenge facing the country in the New Year.
“The biggest challenge facing Lebanon in 2015 is how to cope with the repercussions of the Syrian war, which has spread to Lebanon, and prevent the outbreak of Sunni-Shiite strife in the country,” Samir Frangieh, a political writer and a former March 14 lawmaker, told The Daily Star.
“Priority should be given to preventing the Sunni-Shiite strife that is raging in the Arab world from spreading to Lebanon. Should this strife flare up, it will destroy Lebanon,” warned Frangieh, a member of the March 14 coalition.
He added that the threat of sectarian strife existed in Lebanon amid the “political divisions and the absence of a powerful state.”
According to Frangieh, the threat of strife can be thwarted by closing the border with Syria and the deployment of U.N. troops on the joint frontier “to prevent the flow of arms and gunmen in both [directions], along with the withdrawal of Hezbollah from the war in Syria.”
“ISIS and Nusra Front pose a great threat to Lebanon’s security and stability. Therefore, the border with Syria should be closed,” he said.
Sami Nader, a professor of economics and international relations at Universite St. Joseph, concurred, saying the ISIS threat, along with fears of Sunni-Shiite strife and the election of a new president, are the biggest challenge facing Lebanon in the New Year.
“The main security challenge is the ISIS fire reaching Lebanon. There are enough reasons for this,” Nader told The Daily Star.
Referring to recent clashes between ISIS and rival Syrian rebel groups in Syria’s Qalamoun region near the border with Lebanon, Nader said: “If Daesh [ISIS] took control of the Qalamoun region, this would pose a direct threat to Lebanon and heighten fears of Sunni-Shiite strife.”
Citing the long-simmering Sunni-Shiite tensions fueled by the sectarian violence in Iraq and Syria, Nader, also the director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, a Beirut-based think tank, said: “In essence, nothing has been resolved between the Sunnis and Shiites and between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The Syrian revolution, which is killing more people and displacing others every day, has not been resolved.”
Nader said the estimated 8 million Syrian refugees who fled to neighboring countries, including Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan, are “a time bomb” that could be used by ISIS to enlarge its recruitment base.
“There are 1.5 Syrian refugees in Lebanon who constitute an ideal recruitment base for both ISIS and the Nusra Front,” Nader said. “They are an easy target for ISIS.”
Referring to the jihadis’ recent military advances in Iraq and Syria despite the U.S.-led international coalition’s airstrikes on the militant group’s bases in both countries, Nader said: “ISIS is gaining military momentum in both Iraq and Syria. This poses a real threat to Lebanon’s security. ISIS is expanding its recruitment base, sphere of influence and control in Iraq, Syria, the Qalamoun region and Qunaitra [near the border with Lebanon].”
Hezbollah lawmaker Ali Fayyad, whose party’s military intervention in Syria has raised sectarian stakes, said the takfiri groups’ threat is the most serious challenge facing Lebanon in 2015.
“Protection of security and stability from the takfiri threat and from Al-Qaeda’s affiliates, such as Daesh and the Nusra Front, is the biggest challenge facing Lebanon,” Fayyad told The Daily Star.
He dismissed fears of Sunni-Shiite sedition.
“Although the core of the takfiri scheme, backed by regional powers, is to deepen Sunni-Shiite schism and incite strife, the threat of strife does not exist,” Fayyad said.
ISIS and Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups have claimed responsibility for a spate of suicide and bomb attacks targeting areas where Hezbollah enjoys wide support in Beirut’s southern suburbs and the Bekaa region in response to the party’s military involvement in Syria.
POLITICAL STALEMATE Mouna Fayyad, a writer and a psychology professor at the state-run Lebanese University, said she expected the state of stagnation to continue in Lebanon and the region in the New Year pending the results of negotiations between Iran and Western powers over Tehran’s nuclear program.
“In Lebanon, political stagnation along with a social breakdown will be the norm in 2015,” Fayyad told The Daily Star.
An outspoken Shiite critic of Hezbollah, Fayyad said Lebanon has entered the “Syrian melee after Hezbollah joined the war in Syria.”
“Hezbollah wants to involve Lebanon more in the war in Syria in order to cover up its own involvement,” she said.
Linking the presidential election to addressing Iran’s interests, Fayyad said: “The election of a new president will not change anything in Lebanon.”
Shafik Masri, a professor of international law at the Lebanese University and the American University of Beirut, said the ISIS threat was one of three dangers facing Lebanon in 2015.
“The first danger is the deteriorating economic situation and the absence of serious opportunities to rescue and revitalize Lebanon’s economy,” Masri told The Daily Star. “There are no prospects for Arab and foreign investment in Lebanon due to security fears.”
The second danger, he added, “is that the region’s crisis, including the war in Syria, will drag on with no solution in sight. The Daesh problem will stay with us for a long time.”
“Therefore, Lebanon will continue to reel under this complicated situation in the region, including the Daesh problem,” Masri said.
He added that the continued flow of Syrian refugees and the international community’s failure to honor its pledges to help Lebanon to cope with this problem posed another challenge for the Lebanese.
“The country is collapsing as a result of coping with the repercussions of the ISIS crisis and the Syrian conflict and the absence of a Saudi-Iranian understanding on regional conflicts,” Masri said.
In a TV interview Sunday, Prime Minister Tammam Salam said that during his official visit to France earlier this month, he had asked French President Francois Hollande to expedite the delivery to the Lebanese Army of French weapons paid for by a $3 billion Saudi grant to help the military face Islamist militants threatening the country’s security and stability.
For his part, Army commander Gen. Jean Kahwagi has vowed to crush terrorism, declaring an open-ended war against jihadi militants who have killed several soldiers in ambushes near Arsal.
Army Intelligence has arrested several leading members of ISIS and Nusra Front in recent weeks as part of its preemptive crackdown on terror groups.
“Our battle with terrorism and terrorists is an open-ended war, and we expect it to be a war of attrition, especially after we penetrated deep into the outskirts and remote zones,” Kahwagi said in comments published An-Nahar newspaper earlier this month.
He accused the militants of planning to establish an Islamic emirate from the country’s eastern border to the sea.
In addition to fighting ISIS and Nusra Front gunmen in Arsal, the Lebanese Army also crushed Islamist militants in the northern city of Tripoli in October.
Despite the gloomy security and economic outlook for the next year, the launching of dialogue between the Future Movement and Hezbollah raised hopes for defusing sectarian tensions and setting the stage for the election of a consensus president. The first round of talks between officials from the two rival factions was held under the sponsorship of Speaker Nabih Berri at Ain al-Tineh Tuesday.
“The Future-Hezbollah dialogue is primarily aimed at preventing Sunni-Shiite strife,” said Frangieh, the former March 14 lawmaker. “The election of a president should reflect [a Future-Hezbollah] agreement to ward off strife.”
Masri concurred. “The Future-Hezbollah dialogue is bound to reduce sectarian tensions and address the presidential election issue and a new electoral law,” he said.
Nader, the USJ professor, said the presidential vacuum presented Lebanon with a tough political challenge in 2015.
“The Future-Hezbollah dialogue has won support from both Iran and Saudi Arabia with the aim of defusing Sunni-Shiite tensions which benefit ISIS,” he said.
“There is a Saudi green light for the dialogue with Hezbollah in an attempt to test the real intentions of the Iranians and Hezbollah.”
Nader stressed that breaking the presidential deadlock depended on whether the Iranians would facilitate the election of a president. “Serious efforts are underway to set the stage for the election of a consensus president,” he said.
Referring to French envoy Jean-Francois Girault’s visit to Lebanon earlier this month, Nader added that “the French activity, which is backed by America, is aimed at facilitating the election of a consensus president. However, this activity will bear fruit only if Iran complies with the French moves.”
Girault was reported to be planning to visit Iran and Saudi Arabia as part of a French initiative aimed at breaking the presidential deadlock
REFUGEE CRISIS Collecting enough funds to keep the Syrian refugee response going amid a deteriorating security situation will be a challenge for aid organizations in 2015.
Those at the front lines of the Syrian refugee response told The Daily Star all forms of aid, from food, shelter, health and education depended on the generosity of donor funding.
With last year’s donor appeal of $1.89 billion only 46-percent funded, next year’s ambitious goal of $2.14 billion will require the Lebanese government and the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees to approach a broader range of donors.
Lack of funding meant many refugees were left out; a targeted assistance program launched late this year scaled back aid programs, coverage of secondary health care was limited to severe cases and though 90,000 Syrian children were incorporated into formal schooling, nearly twice that were excluded.
In the most striking example, the World Food Program announced in November it did not have sufficient funding to continue its program, affecting 900,000 refugees in Lebanon. A global campaign managed to secure funding to provide assistance until the end of December, but Sandy Maroun, WFP’s spokesperson, said beyond that point little was certain.
“We are working on a hand to mouth operation,” she said.
“We get money and we use it to provide assistance.”
The campaign raised $88.5 million, she added, of which $64 million was needed to provide assistance in December. Whether WFP can continue its program in January remains unclear.
Under the program, each refugee household is given an e-card replenished every fifth of the month with $30 per family member, enabling them to purchase food at participating shops across the country.
“It’s always a challenge to secure funds,” Maroun said.
In October the Cabinet approved a set of policy decisions effectively seeking to limit the number of Syrian refugees in Lebanon. The policy, which led to heightened measures along official border crossings, will compound other legal issues faced by refugees.
Lebanon is not signatory to the U.N. convention recognizing refugees. Syrians arriving to Lebanon are given an automatic six month residency and must pay $200 to renew, a sum too large for many refugee families.
“We plan to expect that, in general, more [entry and exit] restrictions will be implemented,” said Layal Abou Daher, technical coordinator at the Norwegian Refugee Council.
Heavy restrictions were implemented along official border crossings starting in the summer of 2013 affecting Palestinian Refugees from Syria. Beginning September 2014 restrictions were placed on Syrians as well, with “no clear criteria for selection” shared publicly, Abou Daher said.
Regulating legal status was another pertinent issue that will follow refugees into 2015. “The high cost of renewal [$200] remains a challenge,” she says. The inability to legalize stay impedes Syrians from registering their marriages and newborns in Lebanon.
For George Ghali of ALEF, human rights NGO, the future for Syrian refugees in the region is gloomy.
Internally, the security situation and pressure on Lebanon’s infrastructure has fueled resentment against the refugee population, he said. “This will serve as a challenge to finding durable solutions,” he added.
Resettling refugees elsewhere, in Europe and Australia, too seems to have had limited success and political will. Even in countries that have agreed to resettle Syrians “Integration has been difficult,” he added.
