BEIRUT: The year-old government of Prime Minister Tammam Salam has succeeded in maintaining a semblance of stability in Lebanon amid mounting security threats posed by Syria-based jihadis as well as turmoil and popular upheavals roiling the Middle East region, political analysts said Tuesday.
But the government, riven by deep differences among its 24 ministers, has failed miserably on the political and economic fronts, having been unable in the past months to hold parliamentary polls, facilitate the election of a new president or come up with a plan to revitalize the struggling economy, burdened by a public debt estimated at more than $65 billion, they said.
“The government has succeeded only in one area: standing in the face of the Islamic extremist movement,” Sami Nader, a professor of economics and international relations at Universite St. Joseph, told The Daily Star.
“The government has drawn up a security plan that has been partially implemented in the north and the northern Bekaa region. But the political platform, on whose basis the government was formed, is insufficient to achieve sustainable political stability,” said Nader, also the director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, a Beirut-based think tank.
“The government’s political platform is insufficient to regain the state’s role and consolidate the foundations of the political system. The country’s modus operandi is in jeopardy,” he said. “We cannot say that this government has succeeded in holding parliamentary elections or facilitating the election of a president. This government has no defense policy or an economic policy, nor does it have a foreign policy agreed upon over Iran and the war in Syria.”
“The government has adopted a quick fix approach because it ignores the fundamentals of political stability,” Nader said.
“It has failed to adopt inclusive politics and inclusive economics.”
The Interior Ministry, citing security concerns, mainly from Islamist militants entrenched near the border with Syria, last year recommended against holding parliamentary elections. This prompted lawmakers to extend Parliament’s mandate in November for two years and seven months. It was the second extension after Parliament voted to extend its term in May 2013 by 17 months, arguing at the time that elections would constitute a major security risk given the fragile situation.
Parliament last month failed for the 19th time since April to elect a president over a lack of quorum, plunging the country into a prolonged vacuum in the country’s top Christian post.
Samir Frangieh, a political writer and a former March 14 lawmaker, said the government has had its pros and cons during the one year it has been in office.
“Thanks to the government, it has maintained a sort of stability amid the volcanoes raging around Lebanon,” Frangieh, a member of the March 14 coalition, told The Daily Star. “It has secured the continuity of the state at a time when democratic means to revive state institutions have been disrupted.”
“But these achievements are insufficient to protect Lebanon permanently,” he said.
Frangieh said Lebanon faced three threats: A threat from the 4-year-old war in Syria, a threat of the sectarian strife currently raging in the region spreading to Lebanon, and the threat of Israel igniting the south Lebanon front in an attempt to derail any possible deal between Iran and Western powers over its nuclear program.
In order to stave off the threat of sectarian strife, Frangieh said Hezbollah should withdraw from the war in Syria and Lebanon should be neutralized from the bloody conflict next door.
“The repercussions of the Syrian conflict will hit Lebanon in two ways. One is through frequent clashes between the Lebanese Army and militants in areas near the border with Syria, and the other is by shifting the sectarian conflict in the region to Lebanon,” he said.
The government last month celebrated the first anniversary of its formation amid a mixed feeling of popular satisfaction and frustration, even by Salam, who has frequently complained that his Cabinet has been unable to make decisions on crucial issues because of disagreement among its 24 ministers.
Following the formation of his 24-member Cabinet on Feb. 15 last year, Salam declared that the main goals of the government were to maintain stability and set the stage for parliamentary elections. After the country fell into a presidential vacuum on May 25 at the end of President Michel Sleiman’s six-year tenure, the government was obliged under the Constitution to temporarily fill the vacuum until a new president is elected.
But in exercising the president’s prerogatives, the Cabinet found itself bogged down over a mechanism to govern its decisions, an issue that has paralyzed the government’s work and led to the suspension of its meetings for two weeks.
Salam, backed by most ministers, is demanding a change in the current mechanism, which requires unanimous support from all 24 ministers on the Cabinet decisions. But the three Kataeb ministers and three ministers loyal to Sleiman and Telecommunications Minister Butros Harb oppose the change, saying the Cabinet should serve in a caretaker capacity until a new president is elected.
Salam, who Tuesday called for a Cabinet session for Thursday, stressed that addressing the crisis should be based on Article 65 in the Constitution which calls for consensus on Cabinet decisions.
Shafik Masri, a professor of international law at the Lebanese University and the American University of Beirut, said while the government has ensured a sort of stability in the country, it has violated the Constitution with its decision-making formula, which eventually led to Cabinet paralysis.
“The government has maintained a temporary state of stability,” Masri told The Daily Star.
He said the government has succeeded in three areas. “It has stood fast under the current difficult circumstances and this is in itself is a success. It has implemented a security plan in the north and the Bekaa region,” Masri said.
He added that the government has also succeeded in approving some appointments in the military and security corps and in issuing last month’s Eurobond of $2.2 billion to meet the state’s short-term needs.
Aside from this, Masri said Salam and his team had committed “a big sin” in the adoption of a decision-making mechanism that runs contrary to the Constitution.
“This mechanism, which requires unanimous backing from all the ministers, has paralyzed the government’s activity,” he said.
“Salam should not have allowed the use of an unconstitutional mechanism which granted each minister the right to veto. This violation of the Constitution has led the government to a dead end and it is now trying to disown it,” Masri said.
He added that the current stability is threatened by internal and external menaces. “The wanted people who fled before the implementation of the security plan in the northern Bekaa region pose an internal security threat,” Masri said.
“Similarly, the gunmen [ISIS and the Nusra Front] holed up on the border with Syria pose an external threat to Lebanon,” he said. “In addition, there are gangs in Lebanon that are ready to carry out subversive acts if financed and incited from abroad.”
Nader, the USJ professor, concurred, saying the government has partially confronted the ISIS threat. “There has been no comprehensive security plan to face the threat of Islamic extremism, such as ISIS and other militant groups,” he said.
Despite deep differences among its ministers, Nader said the government is here to stay.
“The government is on the bench waiting for a final settlement in Syria which appears to be far off,” he said. “It is forbidden for this government to resign because it will be impossible to form a new one amid the presidential void.”
“This government has prevented a total constitutional void,” the USJ professor said.
Frangieh agreed. “This government has prevented a power vacuum, but it has not solved the vacuum problem,” he said.
“This government has two contradictory functions. Its presence is essential to prevent a vacuum, but its stay in power is delaying filling the vacuum,” Frangieh said. He added that MP Michel Aoun and Hezbollah are using this government to prolong the vacuum in the presidency and Parliament paralysis.
“Still, the absence of this government would be catastrophic because the country would then be left without a recognized authority,” he said.
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