Lebanese groups are currently in wait-and-see mode as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif meet for another round of nuclear talks in the Swiss town of Montreux. Various groups in Lebanon are betting that a deal would directly impact the situation in Lebanon by breaking the deadlock over the presidency that has crippled the country.Since the prospects of a deal being inked remain high, political sources in Lebanon spoke about the probability of forming a unified Arab front to counter Iran’s growing influence in the region.
Talks between major powers and Iran to restrict Tehran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for an easing of sanctions have reached a critical stage ahead of an end-of-March deadline for a framework deal and a June 30 date for a final agreement.
The sources explained that Arab capitals are increasinglyconvinced that Iran will take advantage of the nuclear deal to extend its presence and influence in the region from Yemen to Iraq, Syria and Syria’s Golan Heights. Those Arab capitals have reason to believe that Iran might resort to stirring up troublein those areas so as to prove to Arab countries and the international community that it is a key player in the Middle East and that it is fully capable of orchestrating events in the region for its own benefit, the sources said.
In light of those developments, diplomatic sources said the international community was worried about stability in Lebanon and called for supporting efforts to fortify state institutions, primarily by electing a president as soon as possible.
According to the sources, the international community also fears that that the presidential void will eventually have a devastating impact on the country’s economy, financial institutions and public administrations, thus threatening the livelihoods of the Lebanese.
Those worries are further intensified bearing in mind reports by Western security agencies about the plans of jihadi militants to wage a series of concentrated attacks on northeast Lebanon after the major losses ISIS incurred in the battle waged by the Iraqi government to recapture the city of Tikrit.
The diplomatic sources divulged that their concerns stem from the fact that the situation in Lebanon is currently not a priority on the agendas of world powers. They added that conditions have not matured enough to allow for the election of a new president, especially that the stances of some local groups are “directly tied to the decisions of their regional patrons.”
The sources hoped that intra-Christian dialogue between the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement would break the deadlock. A decision by the Maronite to throw its weight behind those talks and press Lebanon’s four Maronite leaders – FPM leader Michel Aoun, LF head Samir Geagea, Kataeb Party leader Amin Gemayel and Marada Movement head Sleiman Frangieh – to come up with a solution and pick a name for the presidency from outside of their exclusive circle would greatly help in resolving the presidential crisis, the sources maintained.
As for France’s bid to break Lebanon’s presidential impasse, the diplomatic sources said Western powers have asked Paris to freeze its efforts for the time being. But this does not mean that talks on the international level to resolve the presidential crisis are halted, the sources said.
The sources added that deliberations were currently concentrated on isolating the Lebanese presidential file from the region’s other problematic files in order to ensure the swift election of a new head of state.
In fact, some Lebanon-based diplomats argue that it is unacceptable for Lebanon to suffer from a presidential void in times of peace, knowing that the country was able to elect five presidents during the 1975-90 Civil War.
Currently, undisclosed discussions in international circles are not tackling the name of the president but rather the profile of the president, the diplomatic sources said. For Western powers, Lebanon’s next president should have considerable representation within the Christian community in order to be able to preserve the presence of Christians in Lebanon and safeguard their interests.
Additionally, the new president should respect the Lebanese Constitution, have integrity and a high level of transparency, and be fully capable of facing future threats and challenges.
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