BEIRUT: A reported clash Tuesday night near a Palestinian base in the mountains above the Bekaa Valley village of Qousaya appears to have been the latest probe by Syrian militants to look for weak points along Lebanon’s eastern border with Syria. The few thousand Syrian rebel militants holed up in the lofty barren mountains between Arsal and Tfeil are seeking alternative shelter ahead of the arrival of the winter snows.
But their options appear to be limited, as they are hemmed in from all sides by Syrian troops, Hezbollah fighters and the Lebanese Army.
The deployment of forces along the eastern border is beginning to harden as all sides prepare themselves in expectation of further fighting in the weeks and months ahead.
On the Syrian side of the border in Qalamoun, rebel groups hold a belt of hilly terrain west of Ras al-Maara, Jobbeh and Aasal al-Ward, according to information from regional diplomats and Syrian rebel sources.
They are also in control of a strip of territory to the south of the Tfeil peninsula, and the town of Zabadani and the surrounding area.
The Syrian regime retains control over the route linking Yabroud at the northern end of Qalamoun to Damascus, passing through Sarkha, Maaloula and Seidnaya.
The rest of Qalamoun remains contested territory.
On the Lebanese side, Syrian militants are holed up in the mountains and farmland to the northeast, east and southeast of Arsal.
Facing them inside Lebanon is the Army around Arsal, and Hezbollah in the hills further south.
The Army has significantly improved its defensive posture in the Arsal area since early August, when the town was briefly overrun by Syrian militants. New positions have been built and protected with Hesco blast barriers.
Additional support comes from a recently built outpost on a small hill east of Ras Baalbek, which is capable of holding a company-sized Army unit and is equipped with long-range surveillance cameras, according to diplomatic and military sources.
The construction of another similar-sized outpost is planned for somewhere closer to Arsal.
The Army’s reconnaissance capabilities are further enhanced by the recent acquisition of trailer-based mobile observation platforms, which can be towed to hilltops around Arsal for temporary observation missions.
The enhanced defensive measures around Arsal have effectively sealed off the town from the militants in the adjacent mountains.
Arsal had been a source of food and other provisions for the militants, who live in caves and abandoned farmsteads.
The Army has successfully fended off several attempts by militants to infiltrate the town in recent weeks.
The Army is not alone in preparing defenses along the western flank of the Anti-Lebanon mountain range. Hezbollah has divided the territory into numbered operational sectors and built a chain of fortified outposts on mountain tops to protect Shiite villages in the Bekaa Valley and to try and block the passage of Syrian militants between Arsal and rebel-held areas of Qalamoun.
Armaments in the outposts include mortars, heavy machine guns and anti-tank missiles, as well as 23mm and 57mm anti-aircraft guns, which are also effective weapons against ground vehicles driven by Syrian militants.
“With every hill we take from them [the Syrian rebels], we bring in the bulldozers and pour the concrete and bring in the 23mm and 57mm guns,” said Abu Khalil, a veteran Hezbollah fighter who has served multiple tours in Syria.
“We are cutting the mountains into quadrants and forcing them back inch by inch.”
Additionally, Hezbollah has laced the mountain tracks crossing the border with landmines and improvised explosive devices, according to sources close to the party, as well as diplomats in Beirut.
If the militants in the Arsal area wish to break out before the onset of winter, they would seem they have few viable options.
One possibility is to launch a second assault against Arsal in the hope that they can overcome the Army’s new defenses and occupy the town for at least as long as winter lasts. But they would probably have to mobilize a considerably larger force than the 500 to 700 militants who stormed Arsal in August.
Even if they could seize the town, could they hold it for several months against the Army’s counterattacks?
An alternative, perhaps, is to bypass Arsal altogether and punch through Army lines into the plain of the northern Bekaa. There are at least two deep valleys leading to Fakiha and Ras Baalbek, which could serve as routes into the Bekaa for a sudden and swift charge.
The Army would see them coming but it is doubtful that it could mobilize troops quickly enough to stop the militants bursting out into the Bekaa Valley. However, the question remains – what would the Syrian militants do then?
Two weeks ago, Army Commander Gen. Jean Kahwagi told France’s Le Figaro newspaper that the militants in Arsal sought to open up a route across north Lebanon to the coast. It is difficult to see how the militants could accomplish such a goal.
Even if they had the requisite support from Sunnis in in Akkar, how could the Syrian militants gain safe passage though Hermel where Hezbollah and powerful Shiite tribes like the Jaafars predominate?
Charging into the northern Bekaa would certainly cause panic among the mixed Shiite, Christian and Sunni population, but it would be a suicidal option for the Syrian militants.
A third potential option is for the militants to move east into areas under their control in Qalamoun, rather than deeper into Lebanon.
A year ago, the Syrian rebels held almost all of Qalamoun and spent winter in the relative comfort of towns and villages. This year, unless they can claw back some additional territory at lower altitudes in Qalamoun, they face a difficult winter.
But staying inside Lebanon could be a worse option.
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