BEIRUT: The announcements of the defection of Lebanese Army soldiers over the weekend to Syrian jihadist groups do not pose a grievous strategic risk to the military, analysts said, but the root causes must be addressed seriously to preserve unity.
“I don’t see a trend, I see individual behaviors, and we shouldn’t over-exaggerate their significance,” said Imad Salamey, a political science professor at the Lebanese American University and author of a book on the Lebanese system of government. “Nevertheless, it isn’t to be taken lightly.”
ISIS released a video Saturday night showing a soldier named Abdul Qader Akoumi, who supposedly defected to the group, saying that the Army’s treatment of the residents of Sunni-majority Tripoli and its mass detention of Sunnis prompted him to leave its ranks and join the militant group.
His was the third case over the weekend of a reported defection. A video also posted Saturday claimed that Mohammad Antar, a soldier from Fnaydeq, had joined the Nusra Front, a day after another soldier, Abdallah Shehadeh from Tripoli, also reportedly joined the group.
Though the defections appear to be individual actions, Salamey said they ought to be a wake-up call that helps identify whether there is unease within the ranks of the Army, which should take seriously and investigate the incidents to determine if the defections were a result of personal issues or if they had an ideological or sectarian component.
But while the defections may fuel the narrative of some Sunni circles of deliberate oppression by the Army, Salamey insisted that most of the community remains firmly with the Army, and that the situation is not at a crucial inflection point.
“Given the large number of Sunni officers in the Army and considering the major support the Army is receiving from Saudi Arabia and Arab Sunni states, it hasn’t reached that point,” he said. “Until this moment I don’t see the Sunni community at odds with the Lebanese Army.”
Militants have often pointed to the Army’s alleged mistreatment of Sunnis to fuel tensions, arguing that it targets Sunnis while giving Hezbollah free rein in its cross-border fighting in Syria. Some Sunnis also decry the long detention without trial of Islamists held in Lebanese prisons.
ISIS and Nusra militants who overran Arsal in August and are holding security personnel captive have demanded the release of Islamist prisoners in exchange for the hostages. Saudi Arabia, which has taken part in airstrikes against ISIS as part of the global coalition to combat the group, has pledged a total of $4 billion to modernize the Lebanese military.
Still, the militants will need achievements on the ground in order to entice more recruits from Lebanon in addition to the portrayal of themselves as protectors of the Sunni community.
“I think the ability to entice defections depends on Nusra and ISIS’ successes on the battlefield in the Qalamoun-Arsal area, and how far these groups can cultivate an image in those areas as a supposed protector of Sunnis against sectarian Shiite forces,” said Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi, a fellow in the Middle East Forum who extensively studies the militant groups operating in Syria. Tamimi said the defection videos serve as a useful propaganda tool by appealing to communities where there is some sympathy for the ISIS cause.
Sami Nader, the director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, said the defection threat is more symbolic than immediate, since the number of soldiers who fled the Army is not large. But he said it must be handled seriously since it threatens the integrity of one of the last nonsectarian institutions in Lebanon.
“It’s not a mass defection, but three cases in one week is alarming I would say, it’s a serious wake-up call, and it’s worrying that nothing is being done to contain the threat,” Nader said.
The defection threat is also particularly sensitive because of the large number of Sunni soldiers in the Army, which Nader estimates to be about 50 percent of the soldiers.
Many Sunnis from northern Lebanon join the Army due to a dearth of job opportunities and the slow economy in the area.
But he said the issue is alarming because nothing is being done to isolate Lebanon from the Syrian conflict. There is no political rapprochement between Lebanon’s rival political blocs and no semblance of neutrality toward the conflict, he said.
Nader said the solution to combat the effect of the defections is to show its own neutrality.
“You have to prove that the Army is at equal distance from all parties and very cautious not to slide into anything that can stir sectarian tension,” he said.
But he argued that, amid the political impasse in Lebanon, the Army has adopted a security-oriented approach to a problem that requires political initiative by speaking of the need to fight sleeper cells in the north and talk of ISIS’ designs for Lebanon, like opening a pathway through the country to the Mediterranean sea.
“They are dealing with the problem by trying to squash it,” he said. “This is the problem, when you have a hammer in your hand you can see everything as a nail.”
Nader said the solution is for the Army to be cautious due to the sensitivity of the defection issue, for politicians to support the Army and to secure equipment and resources for its operations, and to position the campaign against the militants as part of the broader strategy to confront ISIS that is orchestrated by the U.S.-led coalition.
“The alliance can offer you a legitimacy cover when it comes to fighting ISIS because you have among the allies important Sunni countries that have their own clout in Lebanese society,” he said, adding that countries like Saudi Arabia offering their backing to the Army in its fight against ISIS will ensure the military is not seen as biased toward Hezbollah when it carries out its campaign.
The letter sent by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry over the weekend to Lebanon expressing support for its fight against ISIS is an opportunity for the country to be part of the coalition, Nader suggested.
“I think this is an important message, that we are aiming to help, and we want to help, but you have to start by asking for help,” he said.
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