While many have given up hope of a breakthrough on the presidential election, Hezbollah’s support for Aoun may be weakened by its fear of the influence his son-in-law, Foreign Ministry Gebran Bassil, wields over the octogenarian former general.
“We are with General Aoun, but we don’t want Gebran Bassil to be the president of the republic,” a politician close to the party quoted a Hezbollah official as saying.
According to the source, Hezbollah fears Bassil will be the real power in Baabda if Aoun is elected, citing certain “practices” and current trends in the Free Patriotic Movement. Hezbollah trusts Aoun and Aoun alone, the source said.
Hezbollah’s greatest concern regarding a new president will be his stance on the resistance. The party continues to insist on a government statement enshrining the “people, the Army, and the resistance,” to legitimize its war against Israel but also against takfiri groups in Syria, a source of controversy. It would be unlikely, therefore, that the party could back a candidate supported by the United States and Saudi Arabia, for instance.
The fortunes of MP Sleiman Franjieh, on the other hand, have improved beyond those of any other candidate, especially since he is much more likely to win the support of Arab allies than Aoun.
Frangieh’s support for Aoun also would oblige Aoun to support him in return, removing a hitherto immovable obstacle: Aoun’s obstinacy.
But not everyone was convinced that change was in the air.
March 8 Christian parliamentarians saw nothing to indicate the election was imminent.
Other sources close to Hezbollah said that the party still considers Aoun the only eligible presidential candidate who enjoys the popular support needed to assume the presidency.
They said that Hezbollah no longer trusts any commitment from any party whatsoever, whether individuals or nations, following what is considers the failure of rival factions and regional backers to honor the Doha Accord, which led to the election of former President Michel Sleiman.
The same sources said that recent security incidents in the region and Lebanon targeting Hezbollah means the party cannot afford to compromise on its security, and will not support any candidate for the presidency unless it is sure that the next president will not “stab the party in the back, as Michel Sleiman did.”
The sources believe that Hezbollah would prefer that Lebanon remains without a president, if his election would case internal strife.
The sources ruled out any interference by Tehran, because U.N. Special Envoy Derek Plumbly recently went to Iran and was assured that it would not interfere in the elections, and that Hezbollah’s position was entirely up to its leader, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah.
Other observers doubt any of thenames put forward in the presidential negotiations were intended as serious candidates, claiming that they were in fact intended to sabotage the election.
A source with knowledge of the issue said the atmosphere was not promising, “but this does not stop political circles from assuming that November will see a shift and that the presidential election will take place before parliamentary elections.” The source did not give details as to the reasons for this optimism.
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