Lebanese politicians must get to work

A Western diplomatic source painted a gloomy picture of Lebanon’s future if politicians continued to refrain from fulfilling their national duties, particularly with regard to the election of a president. Speaking to The Daily Star on condition of anonymity, the source said the presence of an international umbrella protecting Lebanon was not an excuse for MPs to refrain from coming together to choose a new president.

This is especially true given that the umbrella risks being breached by the stormy winter ahead, the source said, pointing to rising fears that international efforts to protect Lebanon could yet be ruined by extremist groups lurking on the border. He highlighted the recent attack by the Nusra Front on the outskirts of the Baalbek village of Brital and Hezbollah’s military operation against an Israeli patrol in the occupied Shebaa Farms. More attacks are expected to take place during the winter.

The two incidents indicate that there are attempts by regional powers to drag Lebanon into the neighboring conflict, the source said, and that could lead to an all-out war in the country.

This existential threat Lebanon is facing has prompted Western diplomats to work to distance Lebanon from events in Syria and Iraq, as the country evidently cannot endure the consequences of being further dragged into Syria’s civil war, which is complicated and reflects a struggle between the region’s two great powers.

The source said that proposals to resolve Syria’s crisis were marred by bickering amid sharp rivalry between the Iranian and Saudi axes and America’s reluctance to militarily commit itself to any long-term intervention.

The Islamic Republic recently proposed an initial 13-point compromise solution to the Syrian crisis that was never announced, the source said.

Sources familiar with the proposal said it stipulated the formation of a transitional government that would have all the powers of the president until a comprehensive solution to the Syrian crisis was reached. President Bashar Assad would remain in his post in the meantime and would have two choices: either heading an Alawite enclave in the event that Syria was partitioned, or stepping down and leaving the country entirely.

But several Arab and regional states, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, have opposed Iran’s solution. They have vetoed any plan that would keep Assad in power or allow Iran to have a role in resolving Syria’s crisis, arguing that it reneged on previous commitments it made in Iraq and Yemen.

The diplomatic source said that the inevitable transition period in Syria was believed to have been the subject of talks held earlier this week between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, as well as between Kerry and Iranian officials.

Kerry is also expected to tackle the transition period with some Arab leaders.

The source said Saudi Arabia was insisting Assad be removed before any solution is discussed and was urging the U.S. to decide once and for all whether it wanted to support the Gulf kingdom or appease Iran.

But denying Iran membership in the international anti-ISIS coalition is likely to impede any peace settlement in the region, the source said, something that became evident with the recent war of words between Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.