Just 1 percent of Lebanese Sunnis positive about ISIS

BEIRUT: Just 1 percent of Lebanon’s Sunni population has a positive opinion of ISIS, according to new poll commissioned by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Still, that means there are probably “a few thousand” ISIS sympathizers in Lebanon, according to David Pollock, the director of the Washington Institute’s Fikra Forum, who designed the survey.

No Lebanese Sunnis in the poll reported “very positive” attitudes toward ISIS, but approximately 1 percent of Sunnis said they harbor “fairly positive” views of the Islamist terror group.

Of the 1,000 Lebanese interviewed for the survey, not a single Christian, Druze or Shiite respondent was supportive of ISIS.

Pollock says that while ISIS itself poses little military threat to Lebanon, the country’s stability could be threatened by the ongoing Syrian conflict which continues to fan sectarian flames.

“I think that the main threat is probably not ... the direct one of people coming into Lebanon trying to promote ISIS or actually engaging in terrorist activities inside Lebanon,” Pollock told The Daily Star. “I think the main threat is probably an indirect one, that the existence of this conflict just across the border will further inflame Lebanon’s own sectarian tensions, which don’t necessarily have to do with ISIS,” he explained. “ISIS itself is not a polarizing factor,” he added.

While the poll was conducted using a random, representative sample of the Lebanese population, no Syrian refugees were included. Pollock cited budgetary, security and administrative restrictions as the reason why refugees, who now comprise more than 20 percent of Lebanon’s population, were not invited to participate in the survey.

The results might have been different had refugees been included, Pollock admitted. “I don’t know, but it’s possible that among all the million-plus Syrian refugees in Lebanon there are more [who support ISIS],” he said. Pollock hopes to conduct a similar follow-up survey among Syrian refugees in Lebanon.

Moreover Pollock says that if he were to redo the poll, he would ask participants their views about the Al-Qaeda affiliated Nusra Front. While ISIS has drawn sharp criticism for its brutality and extreme interpretation of Shariah law, it is possible that a not insignificant number of Lebanese would sympathize with the Nusra Front, which many see as a more moderate Sunni opposition group.

While the fact that ISIS enjoys negligible support among the Lebanese population did not surprise Pollock, he was taken aback by the level of confessional polarization in the country. “It’s more extreme than I might have predicted, the polarization of different groups,” Pollock admitted.

For example, Shiites reported 96 percent and 97 percent approval ratings for the Iranian and Syrian regimes respectively. But just 12 percent of Sunnis hold favorable views of the Iranian government, and only 14 percent approve of the Syrian regime.

Perhaps unexpectedly, a landslide 92 percent of Shiites support Hezbollah but just 8 percent of Sunnis back the resistance group. According to the study, 39 percent of Christians approve of Hezbollah.

Views about the U.S. also vary widely between the sects in Lebanon. While 39 percent of Christians have positive views of America, that drops to 30 percent for Sunnis and Druze. But just 3 percent of Shiites hold favorable views of the United States.

Pollock also conducted the survey in Saudi Arabia and Egypt, both predominantly Sunni countries. In Saudi Arabia, 5 percent of the population, approximately half a million people, support ISIS. About 1.5 million Egyptians, 3 percent of the population, champion the radical Islamist group.