High-ranking military sources warned that the Army must maintain its focus on the battle against jihadi militants, and not become distracted by the internal political dispute swirling around its top post.
Sources told The Daily Star that the decision of whether to postpone the scheduled retirement of current Army chief Jean Kahwagi is in the hands of Defense Minister Samir Moqbel, who is expected to consult Prime Minister Tammam Salam and other political leaders before making a final call.
He still has a lot of time – until next September – to do so, according to sources, but the issue has already precipitated political posturing in Lebanon’s Cabinet.
The sources said that the subject is particularly sensitive, as the current military council has already lost half of its members. But some see it as an opportunity to pursue their political and personal interests, with ramifications for the presidency. Only three members of the council remain: Kahwagi, Army chief of staff Lt. Gen. Walid Salman, and Secretary-General of the Higher Defense Council Maj. Gen. Mohammad Khair.
The sources explained that the constitutional responsibilities of the military council include the supervision and audit of Defense Ministry institutions, including the acquisition and maintenance of weapons and supplies. The council also approves officer’s appointments, promotions, and discharges and appoints officers to the military’s disciplinary board. Its members also help dictate tactics, strategy and defense policy.
If a new Army commander is not appointed and neither Kahwagi nor Salman’s terms are extended, the top post will be given by law to the oldest general in the military, according to information provided to The Daily Star.
As Khair’s term was extended for the last allowable time in February, the oldest currently eligible general is Imad al-Qaaqour, whose service ends on Sept. 19, three days before Kahwagi’s. Next in line is Gen. Hasan Yassin, who is due to retire in February next year, meaning he would be in command for only four months, followed by Gen. Maroun Hatty, due to leave in August 2016.
Despite this potentially tumultuous succession, Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, has stood alone in his rejection of an extension for Kahwagi. He has held that it is the Cabinet’s right to appoint a successor, knowing that the body cannot reach a decision on an extension without the approval of Moqbel.
Sources close to Aoun said he has no choice but to fight for a new Army commander, even though he is aware that Moqbel will ultimately defer Kahwagi’s retirement.
The likelihood of such a move will not stop Aoun from citing the dangers of a term extension and communicating his concerns to his allies. According to sources, he has made a number of remarks on Kahwagi’s performance and the situation of the Army, and is hoping his son-in-law Gen. Shamel Roukoz will become Army commander.
Aoun reportedly said he was taking careful steps, rethinking every decision and monitoring reactions to his comments. He is convinced that some political parties are misrepresenting their true intentions, while others are seeking to gain time to achieve political interests.
Sources said the FPM leader will not move alone, and will take into consideration his allies’ positions. He doesn’t want to make a political misstep, but does insist on defending his position until the end. There was concern that the resignation of two FPM ministers could affect the Cabinet’s perceived legitimacy, but a ministerial source told The Daily Star that with 10 other Christian ministers, the validity of its decisions would remain unaffected.
Sources also said that neither Speaker Nabih Berri, nor Hezbollah, nor the two ministers representing the Marada Movement and the Armenian Tashnag party, would reject an extension of Kahwagi’s term.
According to sources, Hezbollah is concerned that the top post could be left vacant if political leaders do not agree on a successor, and the group does not want to destabilize the Army while it is fighting jihadi militants on the Syrian border.
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