BEIRUT: The Lebanese Army push in the past two days to seize a key high point east of Ras Baalbek strengthens the defensive line protecting populated areas of the northern Bekaa and comes ahead of possible early summer offensives mounted either by militant groups holed up along the border with Syria or by the Army itself.
The seizure of the Sadr al-Jarash mountain closes a dangerous loophole that had allowed suspected ISIS militants to stage two deadly ambushes in December and January against Lebanese soldiers on Tallet al-Hamra, a 1,517-meter hill 5 kilometers east of Ras Baalbek. Tallet al-Hamra overlooks a broad swath of mainly flat terrain to the east and southeast that extends some 10 kilometers to the mountain range that marks the Syrian border. It makes for a useful observation point in addition to the heavily fortified watchtower on a smaller hill called Im Khaled just south of Tallet al-Hamra.
The problem lay in accessing the hilltop safely. The single track that leads to the summit swings out to the east, perilously close to the ISIS lines before looping back westward to the top of the hill.
Although the Army was constructing a new direct route to the hilltop from Ras Baalbek, the rugged terrain slowed progress, forcing soldiers to keep using the dangerous track.
On Dec. 2, seven soldiers were killed when their soft-skin vehicle was ambushed by suspected ISIS militants while following the track to the summit of Tallet al-Hamra. On Jan. 23, eight soldiers died in a similar ambush at Tallet al-Hamra when militants overran the unprotected observation site. There followed a grueling eight-hour battle as soldiers fought to retake the hill from the militants, who appeared determined to keep it.
Heavy artillery fire and multiple airstrikes from the Army’s Cessna aircraft armed with Hellfire missiles eventually drove the militants away. The bodies of 47 militants were recovered from the battlefield.
A security source who saw the aftermath of the battle and some of the bodies noted that while the dead militants were “filthy dirty” and clearly living in harsh conditions, their weapons were clean and that their fighting capabilities should not be underestimated. In the aftermath of the Jan. 23 battle, a fortified Forward Operating Base was constructed on Tallet al-Hamra.
The action of the past two days has seen the Army capture an adjacent mountain top on a ridge 1.5 kilometers northeast of Tallet al-Hamra where some militants had been holed up. The seizure of the mountain safeguards Tallet al-Hamra, pushes the militants further to the east and also allows the Army to dominate the ground to the north, which includes Wadi Rafeq, midway between Ras Baalbek and Al-Qaa.
The track running through Wadi Rafeq has been used in the past by militants to infiltrate car bombs into Lebanon, but is currently blocked with earth berms and land mines.
The Army now operates a string of FOBs and observation posts from Naamat on the northern border to just south of Arsal, providing a strong defensive line against the militants in the mountains to the east.
The latest moves by the Army come amid renewed speculation that ISIS and the Nusra Front, Syria’s Al-Qaeda affiliate, could be planning to launch an offensive when the weather improves to seize one or more villages in northeast Bekaa.
Recent reports say the militants have been bulldozing new tracks and fortifications in the mountains in preparation for an attack. Potential targets of a militant offensive are the villages of Al-Qaa, Ras Baalbek, Fakiha and Arsal, all of which are accessible via valley systems running out of the eastern mountains.
There are an estimated 3,000 militants in the northeastern mountain chain, most of them either with ISIS, which is mainly deployed opposite Ras Baalbek, or with the Nusra Front, which operates further south opposite Arsal. The Free Syrian Army units that used to dominate the Qalamoun area has either withdrawn or its cadres joined up with the two extremist groups.
Despite the harsh environment in which they live – the snow-swept mountains that straddle the border – the militants have been able to develop logistical supply routes to ensure a steady flow of personnel, weapons, ammunition and food.
According to diplomatic sources, the Nusra Front’s main supply route extends from its stronghold in Idlib province in northern Syria across the desert via Quarytayn, 70 kilometers southeast of Homs, before slipping into Qalamoun from the east.
ISIS is also thought to use Quarytayn to reach Qalamoun from Palmyra and other areas under its control in eastern Syria.
Nevertheless, it is unclear what the militants could expect to gain from attacking Lebanese villages in the northern Bekaa. Even if they were successful in breaching the Army’s defensive lines and seizing a village, they would quickly find themselves besieged and under attack.
Their supply line back to the border area would also be vulnerable to attack by the Army.
If there is a spring or early summer offensive in the northeast mountains it may instead be carried out by the Army in an effort to push the militants back into Syrian territory.
Security sources say there is a mood within the Army to conduct such an offensive but it would be dependent on the timely arrival of promised new weapons systems from France and the United States as part of the Saudi grant packages totaling $4 billion.
The Army recently received 12 M109 self-propelled 155mm artillery guns from Jordan and 72 M198 towed 155mm cannons from the U.S. along with large quantities of ammunition. The missing factor for now is sufficient air support.
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