Jean-Francois Girault, head of the MENA department at the French Foreign Ministry, will discuss with his team his latest findings regarding the French initiative to break Lebanon’s presidential deadlock after a recent visit he made to the region.
The French official returned to France Tuesday after visiting Riyadh and, prior to that, Iranian officials in Tehran.
An Arab diplomat working in Paris told The Daily Star that Girault appeared less optimistic in recent days regarding the prospects of a breakthrough in Lebanon’s political crisis, of which the presidential deadlock is at the forefront, although he felt the positive outcome of ongoing dialogue between Lebanese groups.
The source said that Girault discussed the possible solutions to the presidential crisis during a three-hour meeting with former Prime Minister Saad Hariri in Saudi Arabia.
The source said Hariri reiterated during the meeting his support for any president that Lebanese parties, particularly the Christian ones, agree to back.
According to the source, Girault told Hariri that the atmosphere has changed in Iran, with officials there adopting a hard-line stance regarding a presidential election in Lebanon, a development that could prolong the presidential vacuum even further.
The source, who met Girault days ago, said the French official told him that although they demonstrated positivity during his fourth visit to Tehran, the Iranians told him during his following trip to the Islamic Republic that they have to consult their allies in Lebanon over the matter.
They also said Iran was not involved in what they called a Lebanese and, more specifically, Christian affair.
Based on these developments, the source said that regional and international signs did not indicate that a president would be elected soon.
On the contrary, “the atmosphere is very gloomy this time,” the source said.
He added that in case there was no breakthrough from now until March, when the outcome of Iranian-U.S. negotiations is expected to become clear, then several possibilities would be on the table, including reconsidering the entire Lebanese political system.
The source said the current Lebanese government could not survive forever, particularly given that it is full of contradictions.
The source attributed Iran’s new hard-line stance over the presidential election to several factors, chief among which is the ongoing decline in oil prices, which the Islamic Republic considers a direct message from Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif reportedly asked his U.S. counterpart, John Kerry, in their last meeting to pressure Saudi Arabia to stop manipulating oil prices.
The source said Iran’s new position was having three clear results.
On the Lebanese level, Iran asked Hezbollah to be more vocal avout its position, leading to Secretary-General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah repeating in an interview – aired by Al-Mayadeen TV Thursday – that his group backed the divisive Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun for presidency. This position leaves little chance for an agreement on a consensus president during the much-awaited possible meeting between Aoun and his presidential rival, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea.
At a regional level, Hezbollah slammed Bahrain earlier this month over the arrest of a key opposition figure, prompting the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council to file letters of protests with the relevant Lebanese ambassadors.
Internationally, the confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran has heated up due to the sharp drop in oil prices, with Russia also chiming in and warning Saudi Arabia over its contribution to the crisis.
The source said meetings set to take place in Paris, Geneva and elsewhere, particularly between Zarif and his counterparts, could continue to address Lebanon’s presidential elections.
He said the latest meeting between Kerry and Zarif touched on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, but also addressed regional issues, including the situation in Lebanon.
The source said that regional powers were currently in a nail-biting battle ahead of a new round of negotiations between Iran and the world powers over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear capabilities, with talks scheduled to kick off in Geneva Sunday. As a result, the issue of Lebanon’s presidential election would remain shelved for now, the source said.
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