BEIRUT: Israel has raised the alert on the Syrian border in the wake of the weekend air strike on Syria’s Golan Heights that killed five Hezbollah fighters, including the son of late Hezbollah top military commander Imad Mughniyeh, and an Iranian official, Israel’s Ynet news said Monday.
In an analysis, Ynet said Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah's response to the assassinations of Sunday’s assault is likely to lead to attacks against Israeli targets outside of Israel's borders.
It said Hezbollah's massive arsenal of missiles and rockets will stay in the organization's bunkers until the day Israel strikes Iran's nuclear facilities.
The most intriguing question, according to the analysis, is what will happen next. It's perfectly clear that Hezbollah is not currently interested in a major escalation with Israel. But it's also clear – especially in light of Nasrallah’s speech last week – that Hezbollah is interested in creating a new balance of deterrence with Israel.
Why do defense officials estimate that Hezbollah is not currently interested in an escalation? The main reason is that the Iranians do not want a war between Israel and Hezbollah at the moment, Ynet said. They have trained Hezbollah fighters and sent to Lebanon a massive arsenal of tens of thousands of rockets and missiles of every type for one purpose only: so the Lebanese organization can land a heavy and precise blow against Israeli population centers and infrastructures, should the Israeli army attack Iran's nuclear facilities, the report said.
It said, the Ayatollah regime, was not interested in Hezbollah wasting its resources on border skirmishes that have no strategic significance for Iran. This is the first and foremost reason.
The second reason that Hezbollah is not interested in an escalation, according to the analysis, is that the militants killed on Sunday were killed in the Syrian Golan, where Hezbollah has no justification to operate against Israel under the title it gave itself as protector of Lebanon.
In an interview last week, Nasrallah strenuously denied that Hezbollah has operated in the Golan in the past. The very fact that five Hezbollah men were killed right on the border in the Golan presents him as a liar to the Lebanese people, and it is therefore clear why Hezbollah has no legitimacy from the other groups in Lebanon, and from its own Shiite group, to operate in the Golan against Israel, the report went on.
It said Hezbollah and Nasrallah see themselves foremost as Lebanese, and they, according to estimates by defense officials, will be in no hurry to drag Lebanon into a war that has no distinct justification and legitimacy.
So what is likely to happen? Hezbollah will not remain silent. In a few weeks, Israel may encounter an explosive device on the border fence with Syria, or on Mount Dov, or perhaps even on the northern border with Lebanon. Another possibility is rocket fire towards population centers in the Golan, in the hopes that Israel will not escalate the situation. There could also be an anti-tank missile against an Israeli patrol in the Golan fired by a pro-Assad Palestinian group, according to the report.
Hezbollah, the report added, is also likely to respond with a symbolic act, such as flying a drone into Israeli territory – an action that would harm Israel’s army prestige but not cause a disastrous response that would push the region into war.
Except that the blow Hezbollah suffered is of a magnitude that could, in its eyes, justify a terror attack abroad against Israeli targets, perhaps even with Iranian help, such as the bus bombing in Burgas, Bulgaria in July 2012 in revenge for the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh.
Hezbollah cannot let the deaths of five of its people, including the son of Imad Mughniyeh, pass by in silence, but it will hesitate to act in a way that will entangle it in a large-scale confrontation with Israel, the analysis said. The question is what will happen in this attempt at payback, and how Israel will respond. One way or another, the Israeli army will further increase intelligence activity over the coming days.
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