Hezbollah likely to avoid major flare-up with Israel over raid

As Hezbollah seems to keep Israel guessing on how and when it would respond to an Israeli raid that killed six of its fighters in Syria’s Golan Heights, a former minister said the party’s retaliation would be “constrained and calculated” in order to avert a major conflagration in the region.

Although it is too early to predict the way Hezbollah might avenge the killing of its field commander Mohammad Issa, Jihad Mughniyeh and four other fighters, the former minister, who is close to the party, said any decision by the group to retaliate would have to be coordinated with Iran.

The six Hezbollah fighters were killed Sunday when an Israeli helicopter attacked a Hezbollah convoy in the Syrian town of Qunaitra. At least one Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander, Mohammad Ali Allahdadi, was also killed in the strike.

“Any [Hezbollah] response [to the Israeli strike] will have to be coordinated with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the former minister told The Daily Star.

“But Tehran today is unlikely to engage in an adventure that could lead to a world war, especially since it is in a position now to secure its interests by peaceful means through negotiations with the Big Powers,” he said, referring to the ongoing talks between Iran and Western powers over Tehran’s nuclear program.

“It is not in Iran’s interest to bring its relations with the West back to square one with all the political and economic repercussions this entails on the internal situation in Iran,” he added.

Based on this assessment, he said any Hezbollah retaliation to the Israeli raid, which might not necessarily take place soon, would be “constrained and calculated” to forestall a major military flare-up in the region, as had happened in the past in the party’s response to Israeli violations against the resistance on the U.N.-demarcated Blue Line in south Lebanon.

The former minister warned that if there was “a hidden link” in the Western powers’ dealing with Iran designed to pave the way for a war between Israel and Hezbollah, including Tehran, “this means that a world war is in the works, but this is highly unlikely if not impossible.”

Asked if the Israeli raid would leave any impact on the internal political situation in Lebanon, the ex-minister said the ongoing dialogue between Hezbollah and the Future Movement would not stop, even though it would “remain in the framework of internal generalities without touching on strategic issues.”

He added that the big hopes pinned on the Future-Hezbollah talks were losing momentum, as attention shifted to how Hezbollah might react to the Israeli strike in the Golan Heights.

With regard to an intra-Christian dialogue, the ex-minister said preparations would continue to arrange a meeting between the two rival Maronite leaders, Free Patriotic Movement head MP Michel Aoun and Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea.

MP Ibrahim Kanaan from Aoun’s bloc and Melhem Riyashi, head of the LF’s media and communication section, have held several rounds of talks in the past few weeks to prepare the agenda of talks between Aoun and Geagea.