The 6-month-old presidential election issue has moved from a stalemate to a more flexible phase amid expectations to bring this crisis out of a deadlock after influential regional powers became convinced of the need to insulate Lebanon from regional conflicts, according to sources familiar with a senior French official’s recent visit to Beirut.
The sources underlined the importance of disengaging Lebanon from the Syrian crisis, Saudi-Iranian relations and the fate of the negotiations between Western powers and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program.
Jean-François Girault, head of the French Foreign Ministry’s Middle East and North Africa Department, Tuesday ended a two-day visit to Lebanon during which he prodded the country’s top leaders and rival politicians to hasten the election of a president. He also said France was ready to promote an agreement on the election of a successor to former President Michel Sleiman, whose six-year term ended on May 25.
While they cautioned against overoptimism regarding the date of electing a president or his name, the sources attributed the reasons for signs of a solution to the presidential crisis to what Girault had heard during his recent fourth meeting with Iranian officials in Tehran.
Girault, according to the sources, was told by Iranian officials that Tehran supported the idea of distancing Lebanon from the region’s problems after the Iranians said they considered the presidential vote a Lebanese affair that should be discussed with their allies in Lebanon.
After his talks in Beirut, the French official has set up an “information data” about the attitudes and proposals of Lebanese political leaders on ways to break the deadlock that has left Lebanon without a president for more than six months, the sources said.
They added that Girault was expected to present these proposals first to his government and later to the countries concerned with the Lebanese crisis, namely the Vatican, Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The French envoy, who sees that a Lebanese compromise over the presidential crisis requires a joint Western-Iranian-Saudi approval, might visit Riyadh soon to be informed about the real Saudi stance on the Lebanese presidential vote, political sources told The Daily Star.
Saudi Arabia, which wields great influence in Lebanon, is today in a state of integration and alliance with France, the proof of which was a Saudi $3 billion gift last December to purchase French weapons for the Lebanese Army.
The sources familiar with Girault’s visit to Beirut said France was concerned about the security situation in Lebanon that has been exacerbated by the 4-month-old ordeal of Lebanese servicemen held hostage by ISIS and the Nusra Front.
Girault had felt a similar concern from Tehran about the deteriorating security situation and sectarian tensions in Lebanon that might hit its Lebanese allies, the sources said.
On this basis, Iran is seeking with France to accelerate the election of a president in order to restore life to Lebanese institutions because chaos would harm its key ally, Hezbollah, they added.
According to the sources, the Vatican, which is standing behind the French political activity, is displeased with some Maronite leaders who did not respect the pledge they had made during their meeting with Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai in Bkirki, thus causing the country to fall into a presidential vacuum.
During their meeting with the patriarch earlier this year, Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, Kataeb Party leader Amine Gemayel and Marada Movement leader MP Sleiman Frangieh pledged to secure a quorum in Parliament to elect a president.
Although Rai has expressed his resentment over the Maronite leaders’ stances on the presidential vote, the patriarch has not closed Bkirki’s gates to contacts made by some Maronite factions to find a solution aimed at electing a new president.
Rai is also taking into account the possibility of the planned dialogue between the Future Movement and Hezbollah reaching an agreement on a consensus president, who would subsequently need to gain the support of the Maronite Church.
Meanwhile, a Western diplomatic source in Beirut said that a climate of breakthrough in the Lebanese crisis was not fabricated and was in fact based on concrete information.
The source referred to the flurry of political activity undertaken in Beirut by Girault, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and Federica Mogherini, the high representative of the European Union for foreign affairs and security policy, aimed at breaking the presidential impasse.
The source called for reading the dimensions of the messages contained in Bogdanov’s stance on the importance of the “Baabda Declaration,” reflecting Russia’s support for non-interference by Lebanese factions in other nations’ affairs and the need to distance Lebanon from the Syrian crisis.
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