Despite the latest flurry of political activity by foreign officials who visited Beirut earlier this month in a bid to help break the 7-month-old presidential deadlock, all indications from diplomatic circles in Lebanon suggest that no president will be elected for the foreseeable future because the issue is linked to regional developments, according to ministerial sources.
“Holding the presidential election any time from now until next spring seems to be difficult,” said a Lebanese minister who plays a prominent role within the movement to which he belongs. “Conducting the polls in 2015 is possible, but regional developments definitely hold the key to the presidency.”
Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani was the most recent foreign official to visit Beirut. His visit last week followed trips by French, Russian, British and European Union officials who held talks on the presidential crisis.
Although long-awaited talks between the Future Movement and Hezbollah kicked off this week, raising hopes for easing sectarian tensions in the country, this optimism cannot conceal worrisome scenarios that await Lebanon in the next stage, especially since the two rival parties are linking their internal political decisions to a host of regional factors.
Observers in Washington following up on the Lebanon file have voiced fears that the Future-Hezbollah talks might not conclude with a happy ending.
They say the dialogue is merely an attempt by the Lebanese parties to fill the vacuum and kill time until regional and international solutions among influential powers ripen in the coming months,
Lebanese visitors to the U.S. capital quoted these people as saying that the exaggerated talk about a thaw in strained Saudi-Iranian ties is not based on facts, while the situation on the ground in more than one region suggest that matters have yet to reach a point where one can speak about imposing conditions or concluding compromises reflecting the regional balance of power.
The same sources say Larijani’s trips to Syria, Lebanon and Iraq were viewed only as “a morale booster” for Iran’s allies in the region, especially as there are political, security and military developments pointing to imminent strategic changes in favor of redrawing the lines of regional confrontation.
Russia and Iran, key allies of Syria’s embattled President Bashar Assad, do not seem to be on the same wavelength with regard to a solution to the Syrian crisis and Assad’s fate, the sources said.
Meanwhile, priority is still given to the election of a successor to former President Michel Sleiman, whose six-year term ended on May 25, if state institutions in Lebanon are to function properly.
The views of Lebanese and Arab visitors to the Vatican conformed to a large extent with Vatican officials’ vision on the Lebanese presidential vote and the role of the Christians in this respect, The Daily Star has learned.
A veteran diplomat in Paris said that the highest echelon in the Vatican’s circles did not hesitate to express to visitors who inquire about the presidential polls its ire with Lebanese politicians, particularly the Christians, for failing to assume their national responsibilities by electing a new head of state.
In the view of these Vatican circles, if it is not possible to fulfill some personal [presidential] aspirations, Christian parties must at least agree on a consensus candidate instead of each party standing its ground, thus prolonging the obstruction [of the presidential vote], the diplomat said.
He added that the Vatican, which was closely watching the international efforts to set the stage for holding the presidential election on the basis of consensus, had told French presidential envoy Jean-François Girault before he visited Iran and Lebanon that it was ready to accompany the French moves with practical steps but only after Girault had won a pledge from Tehran to support the election of a consensus president.
According to political sources, a senior Lebanese official who participated in international meetings held in New York heard a high-ranking Vatican official respond to a question about the Vatican’s reluctance to exert pressure on the Christian parties over the presidential vote by saying, “We have assigned the mission to Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai, who takes the appropriate stance because he is familiar with all details, is in contact with Christian leaders and acts under direct instructions from the Vatican.”
That explains Rai’s tough stance on the presidential election deadlock which is based on the strength of the Vatican’s authorization.
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