In Parliament’s second extension, many have won something but lost something else. The lawmakers are the biggest winners, because they have extended their mandate a second time, this time by two years and seven months.
If no presidential election takes place between now and the end of this new term, lawmakers will have enjoyed two full-length mandates.
On the political level, MP Michel Aoun may have grown in popularity, because people in the country’s Christian regions generally back his view that parliamentary elections should be held, according to Christian parliamentary sources.
But Aoun has also lost out, because Parliament didn’t listen to his advice about not extending its term. He is now torn over whether to challenge the extension before the Constitutional Council. If he does, the council will likely not convene, which is what happened when he challenged the first extension, but if he doesn’t challenge it, he could seem weak.
The Lebanese Forces’ popularity has likely taken a small dive, given that the party changed its stance at the last minute, making it one of only two Christian parties to vote for the extension, despite Patriarch Beshara Rai announcing from Australia that the decision was unconstitutional and illegal. Politically, however, they could be seen to have reached a good place, and can now claim that they saved the country from a political vacuum.
As for the lawmakers of the Kataeb party, they lost a little by not voting for the extension, especially given that the extension could help facilitate the election of a president.
Hezbollah and the Amal Movement both came out on top, as the extension allows them to maintain the number of seats they hold in Parliament and avoid a power vacuum.
The Future Movement also maintained its parliamentary seats, and made political gains by demonstrating that it was able to impose its stance on others, when it announced that it would boycott parliamentary elections, prompting Speaker Nabih Berri to push forward with an extension.
Some believe that elections could have taken two or three parliamentary seats away from the Future Movement.
MP Walid Jumblatt, head of the Progressive Socialist Party, neither gained nor lost anything in the extension process.
In general, the extension of Parliament has fueled fears that the presidential election will be further delayed, because the stability of the legislative and executive branches has been secured, thus temporarily removing the urgency of filling the highest Christian post.
This has contributed to a sense that, at a sectarian level, Christians have lost out as a result of the extension.
Meanwhile, the Sunnis are seen to have won, as a result of the extended term of the prime minister, and the Shiites as a result of the increased role the legislative branch now plays in the stability of the country.
Attempts to protest against the move failed. The few demonstrations were limited to throwing eggs and tomatoes at some members of Parliament.
One practical result of the second extension is Berri’s call for the committee designated to study a new electoral law to convene, according to a number of lawmakers.
A by-election in the district of Jezzine must also now be held to choose someone to take Change and Reform MP Michel Helou’s place, after he died in June.
According to the Lebanese constitution, no by-election needed to be held at the time because there were supposed to be parliamentary elections within six months, but now that there has been an extension, that is void.
And the government cannot possibly say the security situation prevents it from holding this by-election, according to several lawmakers, given that it will take place in a district that is away from any of the country’s hot spots.
This second extension has not changed any political alliances, although differences of opinion within political factions were revealed, these same lawmakers say.
Within March 8, for example, the Marada bloc of MP Suleiman Frangieh disagreed with Aoun’s party and voted for the extension, while the Tashnag bloc attended but did not vote.
The Free Patriotic Movement did not turn up at all, in contrast with most of the rest of March 8.
However, this difference in opinions will not affect the wider political coalition, as was shown by Frangieh’s announcement after the session that he was not a candidate for presidency and that he still supported Aoun.
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah also announced during his Ashoura speech that Aoun was his party’s candidate of choice. Hence, March 8 remains united on the presidential issue.
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