Lebanese officials and security sources are deeply concerned for the fate of the captive soldiers as winter approaches and the battles between Hezbollah and the Nusra Front continue to rage into the border region where the hostages are thought to be held. Moreover, the sources told The Daily Star that ISIS and the Nusra Front are not taking the negotiations seriously, as their one true goal is to be given a free hand to use Arsal as a base and supply route.Meanwhile, developments on the ground in Syria, including the international campaign against ISIS, as well as Hezbollah’s explosive surprise earlier this week, which wounded two Israeli soldiers, are factors that could alter the security situation and so need to be taken into account. The government is unsure how to proceed, given the sensitivity of the captives issue, especially as ISIS and the Nusra Front have succeeded in inciting division among the Lebanese public, which affects the negotiations.
Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim, who has been charged with overseeing the issue, remains silent, due to the sensitive nature of the case, as he tries to enlist the help of regional parties capable of mediating, namely Turkey and Qatar. He has had little luck, however.
Qatar has influence with the Nusra Front, as a result of its previous contributions to the Syrian opposition, but it does not wish at this sensitive moment to stir the pot seeing as it has largely retreated, leaving the arena to Saudi Arabia. Turkey, for its part, is considering its options as Kurds battle ISIS for control of Ain al-Arab, also known as Kobani, near its southern border. Ankara is not eager to interfere in the negotiations for the Lebanese soldiers because this might give the appearance to the world that Turkey is a patron and protector of the terrorist organization ISIS and capable of dealing directly with it.
A source close to the negotiations revealed that state officials were dissatisfied with the path the negotiations were taking, saying that the hostage-takers had succeeded in pitting the families of the soldiers against their government, as if it were the government that had kidnapped their loved ones.
“We cannot give the Qatari delegation a message for the kidnappers, for the reply comes after a quarter of an hour from the families of the captives, who mobilize to block roads after the kidnappers call the families with a knife to the throat [of the hostages] and encourage them to move,” the source said.
The Lebanese reading is that ISIS only seeks to incite fighting in Lebanon in order to extend its influence. The source strongly denied that the government had received clear demands from the kidnappers through the Qataris or local intermediaries, despite leaks to the media that they were demanding the release of Islamist prisoners from Roumieh and better treatment of Syrian refugee.
The source said these demands were merely “smoke bombs” intended to disguise the real goal, which was for the state to leave these groups an open tract between Arsal and its outskirts and the border, allowing fighters to move from Qalamoun into Lebanon, which is clearly impossible for the Lebanese government to agree to.
“Arsal is a matter of life or death to the kidnappers,” the source said, adding that the security agencies had reports of approximately 4,000 to 5,000 fighters passing through the remote mountains there attempting to secure safe passage into Lebanon. The town is of vital strategic importance for the militants to secure all means of logistical support, not merely weapons. One Lebanese cellular company sold $200,000 of calling cards within just one month in Arsal.
Security sources have expressed real fear for the lives of the captive soldiers. They said the greatest danger was not the threat of beheading per se, but the possibility of battles erupting between the Nusra Front and Hezbollah close to where they were being held.
According to security agencies, the soldiers are being held close to battlefields. In a few weeks, the winter weather is likely to push the kidnappers to either liquidate the hostages or attempt to move them elsewhere, which opens other dangerous possibilities.
As Hezbollah pushes deeper in to the Syrian interior, the rebels are amassing a huge number of fighters in an effort to take Damascus and its surrounding areas.
According to sources close to Hezbollah, the opposition’s loss of vast areas in the battle of Qusair in 2013 and the battle of Qalamoun in 2014 has caused the rebels to fear defeat, and this will push them to take revenge on areas and populations they associate with the resistance they have encountered. They will continue their attacks until they achieve their goal of establishing a foothold in Lebanon in order to drag all the border areas, from Kfar Shuba to the Bekaa to Wadi Khaled, into the scope of their power and destruction along with Iraq and Syria.
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