The recent visit of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah to the Bekaa Valley and his meeting with other prominent figures from his party is striking for its timing, form and content.
Crucially, it reflects how much importance the party places on the war Lebanon is fighting with ISIS and the Nusra Front on its mountainous eastern border, even though that battle may be less virulent than Hezbollah’s historical conflict with Israel.
Although it is not the first time that the party’s secretary-general has left his residence to go to the Bekaa Valley in spite of the associated security risks – he visited the area during the battle for Qusair last year – this trip is a significant final step in a series of actions Hezbollah is taking to control current events.
Hezbollah is intimately acquainted with Lebanon’s strong political divisions over various issues, including its involvement in the more than 3-year-old civil war in Syria and its non-state weapons arsenal.
Regardless, the party has chosen to continue fighting a battle that it considers vital to secure Syria’s future, a mission that is now no less important to it than battling Israel.
Perhaps it knows that since the liberation of the south in 2000, there is a red line that Lebanese parties – no matter how hostile – cannot cross concerning its weapons and continuing conflict with Israel.
Lately, the party believes Israel is trying to exhaust it by pushing it into another confrontation with ISIS and the Nusra Front in the southern Shebaa Farms and Arkoub villages, possibly by giving safe passage to rebel groups who have seized control of the Syrian part of the Golan Heights.
Hezbollah knows that uniting Nusra and ISIS into one front fighting Hezbollah and opening other fronts in the south would be a game-changer that would work to Israel’s advantage.
By keeping the party busy with new front lines – from the south to the northern Bekaa Valley – it would prevent it from attacking Israel or trying to involve it in other battles.
The party used the Oct. 8 operation in the UNIFIL-monitored Israeli-occupied Shebaa farms, which saw Hezbollah members detonate mines underneath an Israeli patrol, to send different messages to the various sides in the growing conflict.
Perhaps the most striking aspect of this operation was the diplomacy and field mobilization by UNIFIL, which swiftly made calls with various Lebanese leaders in order to assess the situation. More than anything, UNIFIL is worried about its peacekeepers being kidnapped, something that has happened before in the Golan.
Through the Shebaa operation, Hezbollah was confirming its right to attack Israel, according to a politician who is close to the party.
Hezbollah “is not trying to find excuses to fight with Israel, the game rules are clear and we won’t let Israel change the conflict’s form – which is primarily about combating Israeli occupation – by letting in takfiri groups coming from Qunaitra,” the source said.
“Regardless of how other people interpret it, the Shebaa operation was a reply to intimidation by the chief of general staff of the Israeli army, Benny Gantz,” he said.
“Hezbollah is still a shield,” the politician said, “and he [Gantz] knows the price of the costly war that he will pay for fighting against Hezbollah.”
However, he also admitted: “Israel is capable of taking Lebanon 80 years back in time.”
Regardless of the various dimensions to the Shebaa operation, Hezbollah’s logistical power remains intact, the political source said. It is not tired at all from the conflict inside Syria and its soldiers are as ready as ever to battle on the southern front, he added.
“Hezbollah is capable of potentially confronting Israel at any time in the south,” he said.
“Hezbollah is not only defending Shiites on both the Syrian and Israeli fronts against the terrorism of both Israel and ISIS, but also the idea of a diverse Lebanon and its unique social fabric in the Middle East,” he concluded.
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