Western diplomatic report warns of ISIS threat

As the Lebanese state and its institutions continue to deteriorate and plunge into vacuum, Lebanon’s allies are voicing concern for the future of the country. The vacancy in the presidency is shortly to be compounded by the likely cancellation of elections and the extension, once more, of Parliament’s mandate. All this comes at a time of unprecedented regional instability with the spread of ISIS and groups like it through the region.

A recent Western diplomatic report warns of the seriousness of the continued vacancy in the presidency, which has had a domino effect on other Constitutional institutions, “specifically Parliament, which is not legislating due to unjustified political disagreements and the spiteful logic that governs the relations of internal parties.”

“At the same time, the current government is doing minimal work and is constantly threatened by collapse as its cohesion is based solely on the continuation of regional or Saudi-Iranian communication, which played a central role in its creation. Any disruption in this communication would mean the fall of the government and the entire country with it.”

The report cautions that generally, when legislative institutions are either disrupted or dissolved, the void is filled by radical and extremist currents that are able to exploit marginalized groups and use them to spark strife for their own interests.

The report calls for the speedy reactivation of the Lebanese state and its institutions by electing a new president and holding parliamentary elections in order to strengthen the country against terrorist threats.

The report advises not to minimize or underestimate the strength of ISIS, which seeks to extend its influence throughout Syria and the Euphrates River Basin, seizing vital infrastructure and oil. It seeks to ensure freedom of movement to its fighters, to expel the remaining Syrian Army forces from eastern Syria, and to control supply lines stretching along the Turkish border.

“This terrorist organization is “dangerously close to accomplishing these goals,” despite the airstrikes by the Syrian and American air forces, the report says.

The report notes that the risk to neighboring countries, namely Lebanon, has increased with time, especially since ISIS seized control of the Tabqa military airport, which will carry grave consequences. ISIS’ gains make clear the nature and size of the force needed to stop it, as well as the need for coordinated international efforts to this end. This is especially crucial in light of the fact that Syria appears ready to evacuate some of its more isolated bases in order to devote itself to fighting terrorist groups in other areas, essentially handing the entire province of Deir al-Zor to ISIS.

The report considers the phenomenon of ISIS to be the fruit of the Cold War in the Middle East between two axes that possess the political, military and economic tools to control the region, alluding to Saudi Arabia and Iran. The primary reason for the rise of ISIS, the report concludes, is the failure of some Arab governments to control their borders and territories and to provide necessary services to their citizens, as well as the failure to develop a shared political vision for the nation capable of creating space for various political groups. The collapse of a number of state institutions in a number of countries, especially Syria and Iraq, as well as Lebanon, Yemen, Libya and Afghanistan, has pushed local takfiri movements to fill the void, with extremist groups coming to the fore.

The report also calls for keeping an eye on Afghanistan because any decline in Western support for the Afghan government or halting of aid would lead to the gradual takeover of the Taliban throughout the country, similar to what happened following the Russian withdrawal in the early 1990s. A resurgence of the Taliban, given the current conditions, would have grave consequences, boosting extremist and radical groups across the region.