BEIRUT: When the Nusra Front relayed its demands to the wife of captured policeman Ali Bazal this week, she came to a startling realization, one that has already fanned the flames of anger among the families of the captured servicemen blocking roads and burning tires along Bekaa Valley highways.
Their demands were as follows: A humanitarian corridor into Arsal, the release of the detained over the Arsal clashes and compassion toward Syrian refugees – no mention was there of Islamist prisoners, thought to be a key demand sustaining the government’s no-compromise approach.
“I think that was an ISIS demand,” the Nusra militant told Fliti, when she asked about the conspicuous absence of the prisoners.
As reflected in the disparate attitude adopted toward negotiations with the government to free at least 21 soldiers and policemen still in their custody, Nusra and ISIS in Qalamoun harbor starkly distinct interests in Lebanon.
Ensuring unremitting supply routes in Lebanese territories is at the heart of the Nusra’s strategy with its hostages, according to experts and sources close to the group, which explains its consistent alacrity with mediators. ISIS, on the other hand, ultimately seeks to establish a foothold in Lebanon, which is why the release of Islamist prisoners figures so prominently in its demands.
For now, ISIS can afford to pursue ambitious designs on Lebanon because it wields the upper hand logistically in Qalamoun, according to a Syrian source acquainted with the militants and a former mediator responsible for brokering the cease-fire that ended the first round of clashes in Arsal.
“ ISIS is receiving assistance and backing from [the movement’s headquarters in] Iraq,” the source close to the militants, who requested anonymity for safety reasons, told The Daily Star. “Supplies are reaching the [ISIS] militants in Qalamoun through the Alboukamal crossing [between Syria and Iraq].”
The source, who claims to have witnessed the group’s stockpiles in the rugged outskirts of Arsal, said they included “everything” from weapons and ammunition, to food and medicine, as well as new fighters.
The former mediator confided to The Daily Star that ISIS militants were in a “better position” than their less-resourced counterparts. He added that during negotiations, the main two contacts that mediators have with ISIS was Abu Talal, who assumed leadership of Imad Jomaa’s brigade, and the Nusra commander Abu Malek.
It remains to be seen how U.S. strikes targeting ISIS trade routes in Syria might affect supply flows to the area.
The supplies are believed to make their way from Alboukamal to Qalamoun through a “a clear network of routes” that include underground tunnels, according to Mario Abou Zeid, a researcher for the Carnegie Middle East Center, paved by the militant group with the implicit support of the Syrian regime.
“ ISIS established these routes earlier on during the Syrian uprising,” he said. “In certain areas the Assad regime looked the other way and disregarded the transfer of arms and ammunition making its way to the militants, in a way to boost their power in the fight against [Syrian] opposition groups.”
“We know that ISIS has more access to supplies than Nusra [in Qalamoun],” he added. “This is one of the major issues, Nusra is weaker and ISIS has more advanced weaponry from Iraq. This is why for Nusra gaining access to Lebanese territory is crucial; they need to have a presence here for ammunition and supplies.”
Both sources acquainted with the militants, including the former mediator, claimed that ISIS sometimes bribes Syrian regime agents to ensure their supplies arrive to Qalamoun. “They don’t feel desperate because of the Army blockage of Arsal,” the source said. “Nusra, however, might become desperate.”
According to Army sources, Arsal is effectively cut off from the militants, with a number of checkpoints erected in the town to ward off infiltration from within.
“There are no points through which groups in the mountains can easily resupply from towns in Lebanon,” said Center of Strategic and International Studies military expert Aram Nerguizian. He argued that no matter how effective militant routes from Syria are, “They won’t negate the effects of winter.”
Nerguizian’s reasoning underlies the Lebanese government’s apparent strategy to delay negotiations until the harsh effects of the winter begin to take their toll on the militants, compelling them to relax demands.
Ostensible drawbacks aside, at the moment Nusra appears to be subsisting through the same Syrian supply lines exploited by Free Syria Army battalions also stationed in the outskirts, but these routes may not endure the winter.
Basel Idriss, an FSA commander in Arsal, confirmed to The Daily Star that their logistical supplies are coming from deeper within Qalamoun, and not Lebanon, where other Nusra Front brigades are also positioned. However, he said they often face delivery hitches.
“We currently don’t have a shortage of supplies but we are facing difficulty in transporting them,” he told The Daily Star, claiming that the passage into Syria remained open by the regime to prevent spillover into Arsal.
But prior to the August clashes, the Nusra Front was benefitting from key individuals in Arsal, like Sheikh Mustafa Hujeiri, who supported them “under the table,” the source in Arsal claimed.
“Nusra made it a point to recruit Lebanese from Arsal, not the refugees, because they knew the area,” the source said.
“Some of the militants who were later arrested during the clashes, used to come in to Arsal and leave with stacks of bread,” the former mediator said.
Nusra’s summary execution of captive Mohammad Maarouf Hamieh, the former mediator said, was a sign of the group’s growing despondency. Its meeting with Fliti, however, was a sign it is still a willing negotiation partner, unlike ISIS and its exhibitionist beheading practices, which has helped to stall talks.
The content of the demands put forth and the relative seriousness with which each group conducts negotiations is also indicative of competing proclivities. Both sources acquainted with the militants said ISIS was demanding the release of Fatah al-Islam inmates in Roumieh.
According to the former mediator, however, ISIS also wants Joumana Hmeid, an Arsal native detained for driving a car rigged with explosives on the Labweh road in February.
It is unclear who among the approximately 74 Fatah al-Islam members currently detained in Roumieh’s Block B are wanted by ISIS, but it is likely that principal figures Nouri Nasr Mahmoud al-Hajji and the brother-in-law of the group’s former leader Shaker al-Absi, known as Abu Salim behind bars, both Syrians on death row, are on the list.
According to a security source inside the prison, not all Islamist detainees are rejoicing at the prospect of being released in a swap deal. “Maybe the younger ones,” the source said. “But the ones who’ve been here since 2007, they know that if they are released in an ISIS deal, they are beholden to them, and so are their families and communities.”
“One inmate who’s served for 15 years, Abu Sleiman, said he wouldn’t accept to be on the list, because he has a young daughter,” the source said. “‘I don’t want to be a fugitive my whole life,’ he told me.”
Loyalty to ISIS in the event of a swap deal will surely pave the way for released members to radicalize their communities, a development the government wants to deter altogether.
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