The Lebanese security personnel being held hostage by Islamist militants will not be freed anytime soon, as there are still many complications to resolve, a senior source with knowledge of the matter told The Daily Star.
The top-level security source explained that there were obstacles related to the militants’ demands, the approach to negotiations and the mediators.
The abduction of the ISF and Lebanese Army soldiers, who were caught during the five-day clashes in Arsal in early August, has prompted a heated public debate in Lebanon, and deep disagreements have emerged over how to handle the issue.
These divisions have also been reflected at a governmental level.
Officials from Hezbollah have expressed their irritation at what they refer to as “official confusion” over the way this matter has been handled, and especially at the hasty assignment of the negotiating mission to the Muslim Scholars Committee.
The committee has announced that it was forced to suspend its work due to the number of people involved in the negotiations.
The government has also been criticized over the fact that the militants were able to safely withdraw from Arsal with their captives, when the Lebanese government had numerous advantages over the militants while they were on Lebanese territory. Army forces could have encircled them and limited their movement, instead of creating a situation in which they were able to leave.
Having been involved in similar situations involving Israel over the years, Hezbollah officials have been keen to point to their experience in such matters.
The party faced many challenges in its negotiations with Israel, including deception by the opposing side’s negotiators.
Additionally, it has been noted that when deals were made with Israel to release prisoners, detainees or hostages, Israel always set a deadline for completing the process.
It is said that in its dealings with the Nusra Front and ISIS, the Lebanese government could easily follow the negotiation methods used by Hezbollah; some believe the extremist groups are becoming more restrained and no longer have the ability or desire to keep the captives for much longer.
Still, getting to the point where the hostages will be released remains a mammoth task, one which falls to the director-general of Lebanon’s General Security, Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim.
The Lebanese government seems to be incapable of meeting the militants’ demands, as Lebanese officials refuse to discuss a number of points, on the grounds that there is no legal justification or political way to comply with them.
For example, releasing Roumieh’s Islamist prisoners, all of whom were arrested on terrorism charges and none of whom have yet been tried, is something the Lebanese government is not able to do on a whim.
As a result, it is expected that the situation will be allowed to cool down until negotiations can resume via trusted mediators.
There has been a great deal of pressure on the government recently by the understandably anxious and angry families of the captives, and politicians seem confused about how they should deal with this.
Tensions soared in particular after soldiers Ali Sayyed and Abbas Medlej were executed by ISIS. Before the killing of third soldier, Mohammad Maarouf Hammieh by the Nusra Front, Lebanese negotiators had been working hard to pressure both of the groups into refraining from more murderous acts.
The senior security source said he sensed the Qataris – who have been enlisted as negotiators – were serious about resolving the matter. A Lebanese delegation headed by Prime Minister Tammam Salam went to Qatar last week.
But the source hinted that it was likely that the actual negotiations had not begun yet, and were being hindered by the fact that the Nusra Front’s demands differed in form and content from those of ISIS. One of Nusra’s main demands is Hezbollah’s withdrawal from Syria.
The source emphasized that the Qataris, like the Turks, were keen for the situation to end well. This is because they are intent on strengthening Lebanon and protecting it from the current regional turmoil.
Their interest in keeping Lebanon safe is partly down to the fact that the country has played an important role in the Syrian crisis.
Turkey is also grateful for Ibrahim’s work that resulted in the release of two Turkish Airlines pilots kidnapped in Beirut last year, and his handling of the case of 11 Lebanese Shiite pilgrims in Syria, who were also eventually released last October.
Separate sources said the Turkish side had asked Ibrahim to announce a period of no longer than 10 days to take all the necessary measures and instigate contacts, in order to put pressure on the kidnappers.
After the 10-day-period ends, extensive meetings would be held.
The security source did not disclose how the issue of the Roumieh prisoners would be resolved, which is problematic, as this issue is of great importance to ISIS.
However, the source said that there could be alternatives to the release of these prisoners.
Recent clashes in Arsal resulted in nine fighters being wounded and treated in Beirut Government Hospital and other places.
A large number of fighters were arrested in the clashes.
It is believed that the Nusra Front is seeking to recover these men, especially given that some of them are Gulf nationals, a potentially sensitive issue. This should give Lebanese negotiators leverage to free their own captives.
It is also said that the Syrian government, with Hezbollah, has indicated that it would be able to take a flexible approach in order to help Lebanon in this matter.
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