6 Reasons Steve Scalise Will Survive His Speech Scandal

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Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., speaks during a campaign rally for U.S. Senate candidate Rep. Bill Cassidy, R-La., on Nov. 1 in Abita Springs, La. Scott Threlkeld/AP hide caption

itoggle caption Scott Threlkeld/AP

Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., speaks during a campaign rally for U.S. Senate candidate Rep. Bill Cassidy, R-La., on Nov. 1 in Abita Springs, La.

Scott Threlkeld/AP

Barring new and jarring developments, House Majority Whip Steve Scalise is going to survive the story that he addressed a conference of white supremacists in 2002.

Unless further evidence emerges of liaisons with the European-American Unity and Rights Organization (EURO), Scalise will take his oath next week for the 114^th Congress as the Number Three leader of the chamber's GOP – the party's largest majority since 1928.

That was the message tucked into the bouquet of supporting statements Scalise received Tuesday from Speaker John Boehner, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and other prominent Republicans.

Yes, Scalise had to grovel a bit, apologizing for the long-buried episode and denouncing the forbidden audience at issue and its anti-minority, anti-Semitic views. But with that out of the way, the Speaker absolved him of further responsibility for this "mistake."

Scolded and scalded, Scalise was still standing.

Suffice it to say that the whip's protestations of innocence about EURO and its views have strained credulity, both in Washington and in Louisiana. EURO was co-founded in the 1990s by David Duke, the former Ku Klux Klan leader and American Nazi. Duke at that time had run for governor and for the U.S. Senate as an insurgent Republican, doing well enough in both cases to distress the national GOP and attract news attention from around the world.

In his moment, Duke was a national figure and an absolute hero to some in Louisiana. Everything he did drew local notice, especially in the white suburbs of New Orleans where he had actually won majorities in his statewide contests. Scalise represented some of this very same territory in the state legislature, and while he was not a Duke supporter, he had shown active interest in the votes of those who were.

Duke himself has said Scalise was invited to that 2002 EURO convention by people they both knew. Even conservative firebrand Erick Erickson at RedState.com weighed in, asking: "How the hell does somebody show up at a David Duke organized event in 2002 and claim ignorance?"

No one has quite answered that question, including Scalise.

So why was he treated with kid gloves?

Here are six reasons Scalise will survive this firestorm:

• The backing from key people of color in Louisiana. Gov. Bobby Jindal, son of immigrants from India, was among the first to speak up on Scalise's behalf. Even more important was the testimony of Rep. Cedric L. Richmond, the African-American Democrat who represents the congressional district based in New Orleans. "Steve doesn't have a racist bone in his body," said Richmond, using what was once a favorite line of Ronald Reagan. Richmond's urban 2^nd District lies cheek by jowl beside Scalise's suburban-exurban 1^st, and the two are mirror reversals of race: nearly two-thirds of Richmond's constituents are black, more than three-fourths of Scalise's are white. The racial divide is more lopsided here than anywhere else in Louisiana. But as it happens, Richmond and Scalise have been friends since they served together in the legislature through most of the last decade. This was the hour when Scalise needed a friend, and Richmond was there.


• The politics of leadership in the House. Boehner's team can survive its lack of diversity in race and gender, but it must have balance in terms of geography and ideology. Scalise is in the leadership in large part because he is from the Deep South, which is the richest vein of Republican voting in the country. Nearly half the Republican majority now hails from Southern states. Scalise is also in the leadership because, as former chairman of the Republican Study Committee, he can speak to the hard core of conservatism at the heart of his party's majority.


• The mechanics of choosing leaders in Congress. Replacing a leader in either chamber in either party is easier said than done. Boehner is not empowered to remove Scalise. Only a caucus vote among all the members of the Republican majority could do that. And for Boehner to push for such a showdown might imperil his own sometimes tenuous job security. In the past, other Speakers have tolerated offensive behavior on the part of their junior officers rather than seek a confrontation in the caucus.


• The passage of time. While Duke was once a very big deal, he peaked a generation ago. Nowadays, most Americans may well ask "David who?" Scalise did not invoke the "youthful indiscretion" defense, but the fact that this speech happened a dozen years ago, when he was a junior legislator scuffling for attention, makes a difference. Consider this: If Scalise had addressed this group last week or even last year, the story's impact would have been far greater and probably fatal to his career.


• The absence of an alpha authority figure in the GOP. There is no one in the party right now who could step in and sweep all else aside, as President George W. Bush did in an analogous situation in 2002. Right after the midterm elections, Sen. Trent Lott of Mississippi was set to become Senate majority leader, but at a 100^th birthday party for Sen. Strom Thurmond, Lott said some nice things about the South Carolinian's segregationist campaign for president in 1948. Media reports and ensuing controversy seemed contained until Bush went after Lott in a speech to a black audience. Within days, support for Lott had collapsed, and the leader's laurels were passed to another senator whom the White House preferred.


• The nature of Scalise's detractors. As soon as the Scalise story broke on Monday many Democrats and liberal commentators urged the Louisianan to leave the leadership or resign from Congress. The editorial board of the Chicago Tribune joined the chorus. Peter Wehner, once an aide to President George W. Bush and often a critic of his party, said Scalise would be "acidic" in the leadership and weaken efforts to reach out to minority voters. But in another example of the jujitsu effect in politics, the line-up of those denouncing Scalise served to harden the resolve of his defenders. Scalise's friends are not about to let the media or Peter Wehner or any other party mavericks tell them who their leaders should be.

Sen. Rubio Says He Could Run For President Even If Jeb Bush Does

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Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. J. Scott Applewhite/AP hide caption

itoggle caption J. Scott Applewhite/AP

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla.

J. Scott Applewhite/AP

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., says he could decide to run for president even if former Florida GOP Gov. Jeb Bush announces a presidential run.

"We certainly know a lot of the same people, we also know some different people," Rubio told NPR's Steve Inskeep in an interview that airs New Year's Day. "I don't believe if I decide to run for president that that will be an impediment."

Earlier this month, Bush said he was "actively" exploring a presidential run.

Rubio said while he had not made a final decision on a presidential run, "we're closer to a decision than we were a month ago."

The two men worked together closely when Bush was governor and Rubio was a rising star in state politics.

Rubio, a first-term senator, is widely viewed as a contender for the GOP presidential nomination. He's a favorite of the party's conservative wing and is a critic of President Obama's policies – from immigration to foreign policy.

In an interview on NPR this week, Obama criticized what he called "a nativist trend" in parts of the Republican Party on the issue of immigration. The president's effort to pass comprehensive immigration legislation remains stuck in Congress.

Rubio co-sponsored a Senate immigration bill that, among other things, included a path to citizenship for those in the country illegally. The GOP-controlled House did not take up the measure. Obama's recent executive actions on immigration makes any near-term progress on the issue unlikely.

Rubio told Inskeep that Obama's use of the term "nativist" to describe opposition to the president's immigration plan is "inaccurate and unwise."

"There are very legitimate reasons to believe that this country has a right to have immigration laws and to have those laws respected," he said.

The GOP senator also criticized Obama's push for a nuclear deal with Iran, saying that the Republican veto-proof majority in the upcoming Congress will "require the administration to come before Congress for approval of any deal."

Obama, in his interview with NPR, sounded more conciliatory toward Iran than many past presidents. Iran and the U.S. — along with Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia — are negotiating over the Islamic republic's nuclear program. The talks resume in Geneva on Jan. 15 despite significant differences between the sides.

Rubio said he was prepared to vote for additional sanctions on Iran today "because I don't believe there is the prospect for a deal." He said decisions in Iran are made by that country's conservative supreme leader and not those negotiating with the U.S. and its partners.

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March 8 rejects centrist president: Frangieh

BEIRUT: March 8 will not vote for a centrist candidate for the presidency, said Marada Movement chief Sleiman Frangieh after meeting MP Michel Aoun Wednesday.

Frangieh said his camp seeks a deal that gives each of Lebanon’s three highest political posts to one political party.

“We will not accept a centrist president,” announced Frangieh after the meeting in Rabieh. “The president could be either from our side or from the other, but should be partisan.”

“As long as anyone is still convinced about electing a centrist president, there will be no president.”

Frangieh expressed full support for Aoun as a presidential candidate, and vowed to continue the battle on his side until the very end.

“We hope that General Aoun will reach the presidency,” he said. “True partnership could be reached if Aoun becomes president, because he enjoys a real popular base.”

Frangieh said Aoun’s arrival to the post will not necessarily mean the absence of a deal with the political rivals.

“The prime minister will represent one side, the president another, and the parliament speaker a third one, the one that is currently [represented],” Frangieh explained.

He said any dialogue between two political rivals is good, especially between Christian rivals when it is about the presidency.

“The two sides are coming from two very far sides, and they should get closer,” he said, answering a question about the anticipated dialogue between Aoun and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, who is the official candidate of March 14.

Lebanon has been without president since May 25, when former President Michel Sleiman left at the end of his term.

Abu Faour calls for specialized health court

BEIRUT: Health Minister Wael Abu Faour called Wednesday for a specialized court to deal with matters related to food safety and public health.

The health minister said that he would meet with Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi and “suggest setting up a health prosecution court specializing in resolving these cases,” he said during a press conference at his office.

The minister’s announcement came after he revealed that a massive amount of expired sugar was found in Tripoli’s port. Abu Faour referred the file to the state prosecutor, he said, adding that he would call on Rifi to take exceptional measures against the violators.

The health minister had said previously that his calls for a specialized body to assume judicial duties in relation to food safety and public health stems from his belief that future cases will surface with regards to health violations. The abundance of such cases would require a specialized body to oversee judicial processes.

The health minister lauded the public for supporting the food safety campaign, saying that public support was his “greatest ally” in the fight against corruption in the food sector.

Public support also showed that the Lebanese could unite over a common demand without being riddled with religious and sectarian considerations.

The health minister also revealed that unknown perpetrators had broken into the health ministry last week and tampered with hospital bills stored at the ministry. The perpetrators stole some bills and tampered with others, he said, noting that the incident is being investigated by the judiciary.

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Waiting For A Break: Obama on 'Strategic Patience' In Foreign Policy

Audio for this story from Morning Edition will be available at approximately 9:00 a.m. ET.

President Obama has two more years in office to match his grand ambitions to the grim realities in foreign policy.

He spoke of his plans in a year-end interview with NPR, shortly before leaving Washington for the holidays. Obama defended his strategy and vision, despite continued chaos in the Middle East and Russia's defiance of the West regarding Ukraine.

The president's challenge is to make good on goals he has pursued for years. When we spoke, he had just restored diplomatic relations with Cuba, bypassing critics who said he was rewarding a despotic regime.

This made me curious about a still more provocative step: normalization with Iran.

Administration officials speak optimistically about reaching a final nuclear deal with Iran, though a negotiating deadline has twice been extended.

The President said that if Iran only would seize its chance to make a deal, the Islamic republic could emerge as a "very successful regional power" — an outcome that, the President knows, would dismay most of our Middle Eastern allies and many of his critics in the U.S.

Iran talks are part of Obama's long-running effort to approach the Middle East in a fresh way. His strategy is radically different from that of his predecessor, President Bush, but their efforts have had something in common: unintended consequences.

Obama came into office criticizing the invasion of Iraq, but his more limited interventions in Libya and Syria have failed to prevent chaos. Shouldn't the U.S. have done more?

Obama's notion of "strategic patience" — pushing carefully forward until "something breaks" in the United States' favor — is tied to another idea. He does not want to focus the full attention of the world's only superpower on Tripoli, Damascus or Kabul. He thinks the future lies in other places — like the cities of East Asia, or, for that matter, U.S. cities that need better infrastructure and schools:

Our 40-minute conversation with Obama began with his assertion that he has arrived at a pivotal moment, in which he might turn from reacting to emergencies and instead pursue long-delayed goals.

Transcript And Audio: President Obama's Full NPR Interview

For Obama it's clear that part of the freedom he seeks is the freedom not to act, or at least not to act precipitately. He wants to save American resources for the battles that, in his mind, matter most.

This is the last section of a three-part interview with the president, which also covered his views on the upcoming Congress and race relations. We'll be hearing other perspectives in the coming days, starting on New Year's Day with Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida.

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Geagea: Dialogue with Aoun is ‘serious’

BEIRUT: Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea voiced Wednesday his commitment to the anticipated talks with his political foe, Free Patriotic Movement chief Michel Aoun.

Dialogue with Aoun “is serious and will not be limited only to the issue of the presidency,” Geagea said in a statement released by his media office.

Upcoming talks between the rival politicians will serve to ease political tensions, Geagea said. In that view, the Lebanese Forces chief likened his forthcoming dialogue with Aoun to talks between the Future Movement and Hezbollah.

The long-awaited meeting between Lebanon’s key Christian foes will likely take place the first week of January, a source told local daily Al-Joumhouria in remarks published Tuesday.

“Preliminary talks have come a long way. ... Discussions are now focused on setting a tentative date for the meeting, likely between Jan. 2-3,” according to the paper's source.

Earlier this week, FPM MP Ibrahim Kanaan announced that talks will aim to find common ground over what kind of president they see fit to run the country.

Lebanon has been without a president since May 25, when former President Michel Sleiman left office at the end of his term.

Aoun and Geagea are the country's two main presidential candidates, but neither has enough support in Parliament to win the election.

Geagega said that those boycotting election sessions won’t be able to continue disrupting the vote forever, in reference to March 8 lawmakers who have blocked the presidential vote by boycotting parliamentary sessions.

Despite the ongoing presidential vacuum, Lebanon continues to be better off than most countries in the region with regards to stability, Geagea said.

The Lebanese Forces leader said that this stability will continue as long as political factions in Lebanon have no intent on escalation.

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Grenades rattle Palestinian refugee camp in south Lebanon

SIDON, Lebanon: On the eve of the anniversary of the founding of the Fatah Movement, an anonymous perpetrator lodged late Tuesday two hand grenades in the southern refugee camp of Ain al-Hilweh, as tensions soar between rival factions of the camp.

According to a security source, the two grenades were lodged near the Souq al-Khodar neighborhood of the camp.

The attack led to no casualties.

Ain al-Hilweh’s elite security force beefed up security measures around the area and launched an investigation in an attempt to reveal to the identity of the perpetrator.

Security sources said that Tuesday’s blasts marked the latest incident related to soaring tensions between old allies who have become rivals in the camp.

The relationship between Fatah and former leader of the Palestinian Armed Struggle (PAS) Brig. Gen. Mahmoud Abdel Hamid Issa, better known by his nom de guerre “Lino,” has been deteriorating since the latter was dismissed over remarks made about the movement.

Tensions were renewed recently when Lino said that in an effort to demonstrate he was still a “son of the movement” he was going to hold his own military show in Ain al-Hilweh Wednesday to mark the group’s founding, at the same time as the Fatah Movement.

Meanwhile, the Fatah Movement is calling for a unified military show, rejecting any separate commemoration organized by Lino.

Lino is said to be loyal to former top Fatah official in Gaza Mohammad Dahlan, who was also expelled from the party over graft charges.

Dahlan is a longtime rival of Abbas, whose supporters accused him of orchestrating Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat’s murder.

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New alleged ISIS demands impossible: security source

BEIRUT: A new set of alleged demands to free servicemen held by ISIS relayed by an unofficial mediator Tuesday are “impossible” to meet if they are indeed authentic, a security source told The Daily Star.

The demands, which include establishing a safe zone from the outskirts of Arsal to Tfail for Syrian refugees, were relayed by informal mediator Sheikh Wissam al-Masri, whose status as an intermediary was questioned by the families of the captives.

“They basically want their own state,” the source said, casting doubt on the willingness of refugees to reside in the zone even if it were established.

“Meeting these demands is impossible,” the source said.

Amid a wave of skepticism and frustration from the families of 25 Lebanese hostages held by the Nusra Front and ISIS, the rumored mediator, Masri, who claims to be negotiating with ISIS, publicly announced Tuesday the demands allegedly relayed to him by the jihadi group.

The sheikh’s very public – and at times theatrical – delivery of the demands ran contrary to the government’s policy of secrecy over the hostage issue.

Masri announced three demands at a news conference in Riad al-Solh Square that he claims were conveyed to him during a meeting earlier Tuesday on the outskirts of the northeastern town of Arsal where the militant group is ensconced.

They included the establishment of a weapons-free safe zone for Syrian refugees, stretching from the border region of Wadi Hmayyed, down through the outskirts of the village of Tfail. The second demand was for the formation of a hospital to treat refugees wounded in battles with Hezbollah.

The third called for the release of all “Muslim female detainees imprisoned in Lebanese jails on charges related to the Syrian crisis,” Masri said.

He did not clarify the nature of the charges or whether ISIS was demanding the general release of all Muslim or Syrian female detainees.

Midway through the conference, Masri said a member of his entourage had informed him that ISIS had announced its willingness to stop executing captives under certain conditions. One of the conditions required the Lebanese Army to open a passage to Wadi Hmayyed, Masri later told The Daily Star, adding that ISIS was not calling for the removal of checkpoints, but was demanding that the military open roads to the outskirts. The sheikh said the militants would break their vow if measures were taken against the town of Arsal.

Masri also said the militants were demanding the release of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s ex-wife Saja al-Dulaimi, and Ola al-Oqaily, the wife of ISIS commander Anas Sharkas.

The pledge to halt executions for the time being was also contingent on the continuance of negotiations, he added, warning that any “wrongdoings” could lead to the killing of more soldiers.

The families of the captives were unsettled by the lack of official confirmation from ISIS that it had tasked Masri to conduct talks.

“I told him that I want an official document stamped by ISIS indicating they had appointed him for the negotiations,” said Omar Haidar, a spokesperson for the families.

The spokesperson told The Daily Star he got confirmation from unidentified sources that Masri had in fact gone to the outskirts Tuesday.

“But that doesn’t mean he met with the mediators. We don’t really know who he met,” Haidar said, expressing his frustration over the state of confusion that has plagued the case.

Haidar also opposed the alleged demands by ISIS, specifically that Lebanon create safe zone for refugees. “We reject this unacceptable demand,” Haidar said. “It would mean that even the Army can’t enter the area.”

Haidar said that the last time he had been contacted by the captors, they told him that Arsal Deputy Mayor Ahmad Fliti, who was endorsed by Health Minister Wael Abu Faour, had been appointed, along with several other figures, to mediate talks with ISIS.

“I just called Fliti before the conference and he was shocked that Masri went to the outskirts,” the spokesperson said, quoting the deputy mayor as saying that he had not received any information from ISIS concerning Masri.

“Under what authority and in whose name is he making this trip?” Haidar quoted Fliti as saying.

Fliti refused to comment when contacted by The Daily Star, citing the confidentiality of the file in line with the government’s no-talk policy.

Hussein Youssef, another spokesperson for the families of the captive servicemen, echoed Haidar’s remarks. “Honestly, we don’t trust anyone anymore, we’ve become a ball that everyone throws around.”

Youssef said an official statement from the militant groups was needed to proceed with negotiations. “We are still waiting on that,” he added. “Then we can start working as hard as we can to meet the demands.”

Separately, the National News Agency said the Lebanese Army pounded gatherings of militants on the outskirts of Arsal Tuesday evening.

Future urges FPM, Hezbollah to end boycott

BEIRUT: The parliamentary Future bloc implicitly called Tuesday on MP Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah to end their boycott so that Parliament can convene to elect a president and overcome the 7-month-old “dangerous presidential vacuum.”

The bloc also defended its dialogue with Hezbollah, stressing it should be accompanied by “practical steps” to reduce sectarian tensions in the country and restore the state’s role in extending its authority and sovereignty over all Lebanese territory.

Speaker Nabih Berri, meanwhile, said the Future-Hezbollah dialogue was aimed, among other things, at creating “a fertile ground” to benefit from any regional understanding, in a clear reference to a possible Saudi-Iranian rapprochement that would reflect positively on the presidential deadlock.

In New Year greetings to the Lebanese, the Future bloc hoped that 2015 would carry with it “different developments” that would help overcome the current crisis that has left Lebanon without a president for more than seven months, paralyzed Parliament legislation and is threatening to impede the government’s work.

“The bloc hopes that the obstructers [of the presidential vote] will act to enable the Lebanese Parliament to elect a new president for the country in order to overcome the dangerous and harmful presidential vacuum and restore balance to Lebanese constitutional institutions,” the bloc said in a statement after its weekly meeting chaired by former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora.

The statement was apparently referring to lawmakers from Aoun’s bloc and Hezbollah’s bloc and its March 8 allies who have been blamed for thwarting a quorum for Parliament electoral sessions with their consistent boycott. They have demanded an agreement beforehand with their March 14 rivals on a consensus candidate for the presidency.Parliament has repeatedly failed since April due to a lack of quorum to pick a successor to former President Michel Sleiman, whose six-year term ended on May 25.

The bloc’s statement came a day after Berri called for a new Parliament session to elect a president on Jan. 7 amid signs that the session was destined to fail like the previous 17 abortive attempts as the rival March 8 and March 14 parties remain at odds over who should be a consensus candidate to fill the country’s top Christian post.

Prime Minister Tammam Salam as well as Future MPs and rival politicians have voiced hopes that the first dialogue session that kicked off last week between senior officials from the Future Movement and Hezbollah would help break the presidential stalemate.

A second round of talks between the two rival influential parties is expected to be held on Jan. 5 at Berri’s residence in Ain al-Tineh.

Referring to the talks with Hezbollah, the bloc said: “The dialogue should be accompanied by practical steps on the ground that would end all breaches against sanctity of the law, state sovereignty and citizens’ dignity and boost confidence among the Lebanese.”

“These steps should stress the need for stability and adherence to coexistence in the country in a way that would help strengthen the state authority and its institutions and enable it to spread its sovereignty and authority over all Lebanese soil,” the statement said.

Stressing that dialogue was the only way to resolve outstanding problems between the rival Lebanese factions, the bloc hoped that talks with Hezbollah would produce “practical steps” to reduce sectarian tensions in the country exacerbated by the war in Syria.

“The need has become urgent to restore security and stability in Lebanon on the basis of respecting the state and boosting its sovereignty,” it added.

Berri, the sponsor of the Future-Hezbollah talks, said the second dialogue session would be held at the beginning of the New Year with one specific item agreed by the two sides in the agenda. He did not disclose details of this item.

“Some have propagated that the Hezbollah-Future dialogue is an indirect dialogue between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Berri was quoted by visitors as saying.

“If this was interpreted as such, that’s fine. I don’t deny this accusation, even though I do not represent the two countries in my dialogue initiative, but I was driven in the first place by internal Lebanese considerations,” he added.

Berri, according to visitors, voiced satisfaction with the local and foreign reactions to the Future-Hezbollah talks, saying he had received a message of support for this dialogue from the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, in addition to “positive stances” expressed by the U.S., Saudi and Iranian ambassadors in Beirut.

The speaker said among the goals of the dialogue was to set the stage for “a fertile ground” to benefit from any possible deal by regional powers.

“The U.S.-Iranian dialogue would eventually lead to results. This would reflect positively on the issue of Saudi-Iranian relations once Riyadh has been given necessary assurances,” he said.

“The Hezbollah-Future dialogue constituted an incentive for the Maronites to launch a dialogue between them,” Berri said, referring to attempts to arrange a rare meeting between the two Maronite rivals, Aoun and Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea.

For his part, Saudi Ambassador Ali Awad Asiri said unity among rival Christian parties would help end the presidential impasse within two months. “Once the Christians are united and if an honest political will exists, all matters [over the presidential crisis] will be solved,” Asiri told MTV station.

Lebanon in 2015: cause for optimism or pessimism?

BEIRUT: After months of uncertainty and turmoil, 2014 is finally nearing its end, and few will be sorry to see it go. From suicide bombings to a 7-month-old presidential vacuum, the second extension of Parliament’s mandate to political divisions preventing state institutions from functioning properly, Lebanon has been through the wringer this year.But what does 2015 hold? The Daily Star spoke to nine analysts and experts to find out what they think is in store for Lebanon come the new year.

A presidential election is a distinct possibility at some point next year, most agreed, although all said it was heavily linked to the regional situation, including the war in Syria, relations between geopolitical rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, and talks to resolve suspicions over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear infrastructure.

“It remains hard to tell right now,” admitted Imad Salamey, a professor in political science at the Lebanese American University.

“Given some of the rapprochement that’s taking place between various contending regional players, particularly Iran, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, and considering some positive signs coming out of the Iranian nuclear negotiations, and given we are about to see some talks between Future and Hezbollah, it’s very possible within five or six months we arrive at a solution to this issue.”

“The Iranian nuclear [talks] deadline in March will tell us a lot.”

The self-imposed deadline for an agreement on Iran’s nuclear capabilities is currently set for March 1.

“We are waiting for an agreement between Iran and p5+1,” agreed Hisham Jaber, the head of the Middle East Center for Studies and Public Affair, referring to the five members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany. “I do believe if there is a breakthrough in the region, we will have a president. The president in Lebanon is not elected in Lebanon, it’s a regional and international issue. We cannot deny this, otherwise we would have one already.”

This opinion was echoed by many.

“I don’t think there will be any chance of an agreement on a president before the Iran nuclear negotiations,” said Mario Abou Zeid, a research analyst at the Carnegie Middle East Center.

He also pointed to the likelihood of a package deal covering several issues if the presidential file came unstuck: “If an agreement is reached on a president, definitely there will be an agreement on the electoral law and the makeup of the Cabinet.”

The recently launched dialogue between rivals the Future Movement and Hezbollah is a positive step, most agreed, and one that might “usher in a new momentum” on the political scene, said Randa Slim, a Lebanese-American political analyst at the Middle East Institute.

“That will lead to an agreement on a package deal that will include a new electoral law and a new consensus presidential candidate.”

Not everyone thought that a presidential election would come along with long-awaited electoral reform, however, with some saying that the idea of inviting such massive structural change was ludicrous at a time of such instability.

“It’s the No. 1 reform to be undertaken, but it requires a wide agreement ... and more time, a different mood than we have now,” said Sami Nader, a professor of economics and international relations at the Universite St. Joseph and the director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs think tank.

“If they agree on an electoral law, that means they have to go to elections despite already extending their terms twice. They are not ready for elections ... Why? Because they are so busy with what’s inside Syria, they don’t have the capacity to manage elections here.”

What all the analysts did agree on, however, was that the two current presidential candidates, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, backed by March 14, and Free Patriotic Movement head Michel Aoun, supported by March 8, are far too controversial to be elected.

“We can rule out Mr. Geagea and Mr. Aoun for sure, because Lebanon needs a consensus figure,” said LAU’s Salamey.

Instead, most pointed to Army chief Jean Kahwagi, Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, or, less likely, former Minister Jean Obeid as presidential possibles.

“In view of the threat posed by radical Islamic groups throughout the region, I am willing to bet that the next president will be Jean Kahwagi,” said Hilal Khashan, professor of political studies at the American University of Beirut. “Having said that, I do not think we will have a new president in 2015.”

If a president is elected, the current Cabinet would automatically be dissolved, putting the post of prime minister – the highest political Sunni post in the country – back up for grabs. So who might be in the running to take it?

“This is complicated, but my guess is that, if indeed we do have a political breakthrough ... Hezbollah would be content to give March 14 this post,” said Faysal Itani, a fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East. “Provided they respect certain ‘red lines’ about Hezbollah’s militia, etc.”

While a third of the analysts name-checked Future leader and former premier Saad Hariri as a front runner, the majority thought his appointment was unlikely at the moment.

“It’s not likely under the circumstances,” Itani said. “Our friendly neighbors would probably kill him. But there are plenty of Sunnis lying around. [Interior Minister] Nouhad al-Machnouk comes to mind.”

Another clear candidate for the premiership was current Prime Minister Tammam Salam, whom analysts praised as both uncontroversial and inoffensive.

“I think probably Tammam Salam or Machnouk [will become premier],” said Kamel Wazne, a Beirut-based political analyst. “Hariri is distant possibility because I don’t think he wants it. It will be him or someone he designates.”

Analysts were also quizzed on the likelihood of a range of other developments taking place in 2015, including: a new campaign of suicide bombings; Hezbollah ending its military involvement in Syria alongside President Bashar Assad; the Special Tribunal for Lebanon finishing its work investigating the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri; a significant military confrontation with Israel; and some sort of movement on the stagnating efforts to tap Lebanon’s offshore oil reserves.

Predictions were largely mixed, but two results stood out clearly.

All agreed that Lebanon would probably see a return of suicide bombings, and all but one thought it was nigh-on impossible that Hezbollah would withdraw its troops from Syria in 2015.

“The chances of Hezbollah ending its involvement in Syria is so low, it doesn’t even register on the scale,” said Phillip Smyth, a researcher at the University of Maryland and author of the blog Hizballah Cavalcade.

“The fighting is continuing, Hezbollah is digging in its heels, and the group has been in the process of the building of local surrogates.”

A sunny picture of Lebanon’s future indeed.

Lebanon in 2015: cause for optimism or pessimism?

BEIRUT: After months of uncertainty and turmoil, 2014 is finally nearing its end, and few will be sorry to see it go. From suicide bombings to a 7-month-old presidential vacuum, the second extension of Parliament’s mandate to political divisions preventing state institutions from functioning properly, Lebanon has been through the wringer this year.But what does 2015 hold? The Daily Star spoke to nine analysts and experts to find out what they think is in store for Lebanon come the new year.

A presidential election is a distinct possibility at some point next year, most agreed, although all said it was heavily linked to the regional situation, including the war in Syria, relations between geopolitical rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, and talks to resolve suspicions over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear infrastructure.

“It remains hard to tell right now,” admitted Imad Salamey, a professor in political science at the Lebanese American University.

“Given some of the rapprochement that’s taking place between various contending regional players, particularly Iran, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, and considering some positive signs coming out of the Iranian nuclear negotiations, and given we are about to see some talks between Future and Hezbollah, it’s very possible within five or six months we arrive at a solution to this issue.”

“The Iranian nuclear [talks] deadline in March will tell us a lot.”

The self-imposed deadline for an agreement on Iran’s nuclear capabilities is currently set for March 1.

“We are waiting for an agreement between Iran and p5+1,” agreed Hisham Jaber, the head of the Middle East Center for Studies and Public Affair, referring to the five members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany. “I do believe if there is a breakthrough in the region, we will have a president. The president in Lebanon is not elected in Lebanon, it’s a regional and international issue. We cannot deny this, otherwise we would have one already.”

This opinion was echoed by many.

“I don’t think there will be any chance of an agreement on a president before the Iran nuclear negotiations,” said Mario Abou Zeid, a research analyst at the Carnegie Middle East Center.

He also pointed to the likelihood of a package deal covering several issues if the presidential file came unstuck: “If an agreement is reached on a president, definitely there will be an agreement on the electoral law and the makeup of the Cabinet.”

The recently launched dialogue between rivals the Future Movement and Hezbollah is a positive step, most agreed, and one that might “usher in a new momentum” on the political scene, said Randa Slim, a Lebanese-American political analyst at the Middle East Institute.

“That will lead to an agreement on a package deal that will include a new electoral law and a new consensus presidential candidate.”

Not everyone thought that a presidential election would come along with long-awaited electoral reform, however, with some saying that the idea of inviting such massive structural change was ludicrous at a time of such instability.

“It’s the No. 1 reform to be undertaken, but it requires a wide agreement ... and more time, a different mood than we have now,” said Sami Nader, a professor of economics and international relations at the Universite St. Joseph and the director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs think tank.

“If they agree on an electoral law, that means they have to go to elections despite already extending their terms twice. They are not ready for elections ... Why? Because they are so busy with what’s inside Syria, they don’t have the capacity to manage elections here.”

What all the analysts did agree on, however, was that the two current presidential candidates, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, backed by March 14, and Free Patriotic Movement head Michel Aoun, supported by March 8, are far too controversial to be elected.

“We can rule out Mr. Geagea and Mr. Aoun for sure, because Lebanon needs a consensus figure,” said LAU’s Salamey.

Instead, most pointed to Army chief Jean Kahwagi, Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, or, less likely, former Minister Jean Obeid as presidential possibles.

“In view of the threat posed by radical Islamic groups throughout the region, I am willing to bet that the next president will be Jean Kahwagi,” said Hilal Khashan, professor of political studies at the American University of Beirut. “Having said that, I do not think we will have a new president in 2015.”

If a president is elected, the current Cabinet would automatically be dissolved, putting the post of prime minister – the highest political Sunni post in the country – back up for grabs. So who might be in the running to take it?

“This is complicated, but my guess is that, if indeed we do have a political breakthrough ... Hezbollah would be content to give March 14 this post,” said Faysal Itani, a fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East. “Provided they respect certain ‘red lines’ about Hezbollah’s militia, etc.”

While a third of the analysts name-checked Future leader and former premier Saad Hariri as a front runner, the majority thought his appointment was unlikely at the moment.

“It’s not likely under the circumstances,” Itani said. “Our friendly neighbors would probably kill him. But there are plenty of Sunnis lying around. [Interior Minister] Nouhad al-Machnouk comes to mind.”

Another clear candidate for the premiership was current Prime Minister Tammam Salam, whom analysts praised as both uncontroversial and inoffensive.

“I think probably Tammam Salam or Machnouk [will become premier],” said Kamel Wazne, a Beirut-based political analyst. “Hariri is distant possibility because I don’t think he wants it. It will be him or someone he designates.”

Analysts were also quizzed on the likelihood of a range of other developments taking place in 2015, including: a new campaign of suicide bombings; Hezbollah ending its military involvement in Syria alongside President Bashar Assad; the Special Tribunal for Lebanon finishing its work investigating the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri; a significant military confrontation with Israel; and some sort of movement on the stagnating efforts to tap Lebanon’s offshore oil reserves.

Predictions were largely mixed, but two results stood out clearly.

All agreed that Lebanon would probably see a return of suicide bombings, and all but one thought it was nigh-on impossible that Hezbollah would withdraw its troops from Syria in 2015.

“The chances of Hezbollah ending its involvement in Syria is so low, it doesn’t even register on the scale,” said Phillip Smyth, a researcher at the University of Maryland and author of the blog Hizballah Cavalcade.

“The fighting is continuing, Hezbollah is digging in its heels, and the group has been in the process of the building of local surrogates.”

A sunny picture of Lebanon’s future indeed.

Abu Faour exposes deplorable conditions at port grain silos

BEIRUT: Pathology experts sounded alarm bells Tuesday after an inspection of grain silos at Beirut’s port conducted by ministers found supplies were being stored in poor conditions. After weeks of warning citizens about contaminated meat and poultry in Lebanon’s restaurants and shopping markets, Health Minister Wael Abu Faour brought the issue of wheat storage into the limelight.

“Lebanese are sharing wheat with rats and pigeons,” Abu Faour announced at the end of the tour, accompanied by Alain Hakim and Akram Chehayeb, the ministers of economy and agriculture respectively.

Although the director of grain silos at the port, Moussa Khoury, expressed support for the health minister’s campaign, he complained that the inspection was restricted to the areas surrounding the silos and not inside the storage unit itself.

The presence of rats in the vicinity of the silos was enough to raise red flags, experts warned.

“Rats carry dangerous diseases,” stressed Alexander Abdelnour, chairperson of the department of experimental pathology, microbiology and immunology at the American University of Beirut.

Abdelnour told The Daily Star that there are a number of bacteria carried by rats. “It’s a problem if it [the presence of rats] is true,” he added.

Abdelnour said certain microbes carried by rats can cause health problems for people including infections such as leptospira leading to leptospirosis, which can cause bleeding from the lungs. “Leptospira is a spiral-shaped bacterium that can lead to kidney and lung problems if a person catches it,” he said.

Rat urine contains leptospira, Abdelnour explained.

Fleas too can carry bacteria, such as Yersinia pestis, from rats and implant it in foods, he added.

According to Abu Faour, who spoke at a joint news conference at the port with both the agriculture and economy ministers, a fence cordoning off silos at the port was not enough to ward off infestation.

“We found a number of rats and rodents, some of them dead,” he said.

“The presence of a huge number of birds also allows for the transmission of spores,” he said at the port. “There are also pigeons, some of them dead, around the silos.”

“I suggest they take these dead rats and examine them to see if they carry microbes,” Abdelnour said.

The health minister also said cargo containers and maintenance rooms should be examined for possible water leakages, which can cause mold to thrive.

Abu Faour also said trucks transporting grains to and from silos “were not in good condition.”

He has since referred the case to judicial authorities.

Abu Faour acknowledged that grain silos at the port were under new management set up only seven months ago. The new port manager was appointed five months ago.

The minister added that he did not “hold any party responsible” for the disorder at the port, but noted that the filthy conditions had been accumulating for years.

But Agriculture Minister Akram Chehayeb was quick to blame the poor conditions on the government’s “historic neglect” of Beirut port.

Chehayeb also expressed concern over the facility’s working conditions, noting that the 4,000 truck drivers who come and go from the port did not have access to a single bathroom.

Abu Faour and Chehayeb could not access the silos because they were trapped in an elevator at the facility for 15 minutes.

Despite the minister’s report, the grain silos’ manager maintained that wheat storage at his port complied with health and safety standards, and said that grain at the port was transported from silos using approved equipment. Khoury, the manager, also said the grain was sterilized before being transferred to the mill.

Tuesday’s move was the latest in a series of actions undertaken by Abu Faour as part of his wildly popular food safety campaign.

Abu Faour and inspectors from the ministry have since last month been inspecting food and transportation facilities around the country, highlighting safety violations publicly.

NYE partygoers to get free taxi rides in anti-drunk driving push

BEIRUT: A nationwide campaign aiming to prevent road accidents on New Year’s Eve was unveiled Tuesday by the Internal Security Forces Traffic Management Center, in association with the Interior Ministry. The new program provides partygoers a safe option to get home by offering free taxi services to those who have had too much to drink.

In addition to TMC, the program was coordinated by telecommunications company alfa and a syndicate of taxi drivers.

“The program is oriented toward making the New Year’s Eve safer,” Michel Moutran, head of public relations at TMC, told The Daily Star.

The service can be accessed by calling TMC’s hotline at 1720. An operator will connect the call to emergency services such as the Red Cross or the ISF or send a taxi.

People can also call taxis on behalf of friends who are too inebriated to drive home.

Breathalyzer tests will be in increased use over New Year’s Eve, Moutran added.

Speaking at a news conference, alfa CEO Marwan Hayek said the International Telecommunications Union was developing new technologies to help avoid collisions in the future.

“[We are working on] automated media technologies, communication technologies and GPS as well as radar in the cars,” Hayek said.

“We [also] realized that a large portion of traffic accidents are caused by irresponsible usage of cell phones while driving and it is therefore necessary for us to engage in spreading awareness about road safety,” he added.

The company addressed the issue of using cell phones while driving during a campaign earlier this year.

Road safety is often a topic of debate in Lebanon.

Hayek said 800 people die each year from traffic accidents in the country, and experts attribute a large number to drunk driving, although there are no reliable statistics available.

The ISF has partnered up with road safety non-governmental organizations YASA and Kunhadi to help prevent drunken driving fatalities this New Year’s Eve.

Their campaigns, which involve social media, mainly target 18- to 25-year-olds – the group most likely to drive while under the influence of alcohol.

Kunhadi is also offering free taxi services for partygoers. It has teamed up with nightclubs to offer free taxi rides for patrons they suspect may try to drive home inebriated.

Nightclub employees will attempt to spot potential drunk drivers and they will arrange for taxis that are either paid for by Kunhadi or have their cost split between the club and the NGO.

The ISF also recently announced measures to begin enforcing the country’s traffic laws more vigilantly. They will hope to replicate last year’s success on New Year’s Eve, when there was not a single recorded drunk driving accident.

ISF Maj. Gen. Ibrahim Basbous will carry out a field tour of preparations for New Year’s Eve starting at the barracks of late Col. Wissam al-Hasan in Dbayeh.

NYE partygoers to get free taxi rides in anti-drunk driving push

BEIRUT: A nationwide campaign aiming to prevent road accidents on New Year’s Eve was unveiled Tuesday by the Internal Security Forces Traffic Management Center, in association with the Interior Ministry. The new program provides partygoers a safe option to get home by offering free taxi services to those who have had too much to drink.

In addition to TMC, the program was coordinated by telecommunications company alfa and a syndicate of taxi drivers.

“The program is oriented toward making the New Year’s Eve safer,” Michel Moutran, head of public relations at TMC, told The Daily Star.

The service can be accessed by calling TMC’s hotline at 1720. An operator will connect the call to emergency services such as the Red Cross or the ISF or send a taxi.

People can also call taxis on behalf of friends who are too inebriated to drive home.

Breathalyzer tests will be in increased use over New Year’s Eve, Moutran added.

Speaking at a news conference, alfa CEO Marwan Hayek said the International Telecommunications Union was developing new technologies to help avoid collisions in the future.

“[We are working on] automated media technologies, communication technologies and GPS as well as radar in the cars,” Hayek said.

“We [also] realized that a large portion of traffic accidents are caused by irresponsible usage of cell phones while driving and it is therefore necessary for us to engage in spreading awareness about road safety,” he added.

The company addressed the issue of using cell phones while driving during a campaign earlier this year.

Road safety is often a topic of debate in Lebanon.

Hayek said 800 people die each year from traffic accidents in the country, and experts attribute a large number to drunk driving, although there are no reliable statistics available.

The ISF has partnered up with road safety non-governmental organizations YASA and Kunhadi to help prevent drunken driving fatalities this New Year’s Eve.

Their campaigns, which involve social media, mainly target 18- to 25-year-olds – the group most likely to drive while under the influence of alcohol.

Kunhadi is also offering free taxi services for partygoers. It has teamed up with nightclubs to offer free taxi rides for patrons they suspect may try to drive home inebriated.

Nightclub employees will attempt to spot potential drunk drivers and they will arrange for taxis that are either paid for by Kunhadi or have their cost split between the club and the NGO.

The ISF also recently announced measures to begin enforcing the country’s traffic laws more vigilantly. They will hope to replicate last year’s success on New Year’s Eve, when there was not a single recorded drunk driving accident.

ISF Maj. Gen. Ibrahim Basbous will carry out a field tour of preparations for New Year’s Eve starting at the barracks of late Col. Wissam al-Hasan in Dbayeh.

U.S. thinkers see strength in Lebanon’s political system

Decades of Civil War and turmoil in Lebanon have “vaccinated” the country against future turmoil, according to an analysis by two of America’s most eminent thinkers on global risk.

The notion that past bouts of chaos can serve as an indicator of future stability is the central theme of an essay by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Gregory Treverton in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs, the influential magazine of the Council on Foreign Relations. Taleb is a Lebanese-American who turned from Wall Street trader to best-selling author and celebrity philosopher.

Treverton last September became chairman of the U.S. National Intelligence Council, a post that includes coordinating intelligence forecasts from America’s 16 spy agencies.

To bolster their argument that volatility signals stability, and vice versa, the two look at how Syria and Lebanon were perceived at the beginning of the Arab Spring in 2011. “Many pundits argued that Syria’s sturdy police state, which exercised tight control over the country’s people and economy, would survive the Arab Spring undisturbed,” they write. “Compared with its neighbor Lebanon, Syria looked positively stable. Civil War had torn through Lebanon throughout much of the 1970s and 1980s, and the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005 had plunged the country into yet more chaos.”

Yet today Syria is in shambles, they write, while Lebanon has withstood the influx of refugees from the Syrian civil war and related pressures from the turmoil next door. “Surprising as it may seem, the per capita death rate from violence in Lebanon in 2013 was lower than that of Washington D.C.” (The essay, adapted from a report by the RAND institution for which Treverton used to work, was written before Islamist gunmen and Lebanese troops clashed in northern Lebanon).

Why did seemingly stable Syria begin to fall apart while “always-in-turmoil Lebanon” proved more robust than pundits predicted? Syria’s calm facade concealed deep structural vulnerabilities. “Lebanon’s chaos, paradoxically, signaled strength. Fifteen years of civil war had served to decentralize the state and bring about a more balanced sectarian power-sharing structure.” A free-market economy made Lebanon less vulnerable to disruption than Syria with its rigid Soviet-style system.

But the biggest difference between the two neighbors, according to Taleb and Treverton, was that Syria had no recent record of recovering from turmoil. Lebanon did, and “countries that have survived past bouts of chaos tend to be vaccinated against future ones.” In that thinking, the best indicator of a country’s future stability is not past stability but volatility in the recent past.

In looking at Lebanon, Taleb draws from experience: He was 15 when the Civil War reached his family’s home at Amioun and the Lebanese paradise suddenly evaporated, as he phrased it in the foreword of The Black Swan, the 2007 book that made him an international celebrity. The book deals with the role unexpected major events play in world affairs. It has been translated into 33 languages and was credited by some with predicting the banking and economic crisis of 2008.

Expanding their Syria-Lebanon argument to the rest of the world, the two authors identify other countries at risk. Saudi Arabia tops the list, exhibiting signs of being very fragile.

“Saudi Arabia is an easy call: It is extremely dependent on oil, has no political variability and is highly centralized. Its oil wealth and powerful government have papered over the splits between is ethnoreligious units, with the Shiite minority living where the oil is.”

For similar reasons, Bahrain should be considered “extremely fragile,” write the pair. Also on the list of endangered Middle Eastern countries: Egypt. Its recovery from the chaos of the revolution has been largely cosmetic and the government is still highly centralized and bureaucratic.

Outside the Middle East, Venezuela and Russia face trouble in the future.

Both have oil-based economies, highly centralized political systems and no record of having survived massive shocks. In contrast, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand survived the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, drew lessons from it and adjusted their institutions and practices.

In western Europe, Taleb and Treverton view one country as particularly robust, for reasons that echo their view of Lebanon. “Italy, paradoxically, shows no sign of fragility,” they write.

It is decentralized and has bounced back from perennial political crises that gave the country 14 prime ministers in the past 25 years.

Bernd Debusmann is a former Reuters world affairs columnist. This article was written exclusively for The Daily Star.