Time to ditch rising stocks, or stick with them?

NEW YORK -- Is it time to cash out of stocks?

The market has nearly tripled in a little over five years, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index closed above 2,000 for the first time on Tuesday. With each record, the temptation grows to take your winnings and flee.

Plenty of experts think stocks are about to drop. But many others offer compelling arguments for the rally to continue for years.

The bulls point to a strengthening U.S. economy. They also like that companies have plenty of money to keep buying back their own stock.

The bears argue that stocks already reflect years of future profit gains. They also note that many economies around the world are stumbling and that U.S. interest rates could rise soon.

Remember, though, that even the best investors find it nearly impossible to time the market to catch the lows and highs.

The bull and bear cases in detail:

BULL CASE

A STRONGER ECONOMY

Four of the past five bull markets have ended with investors selling in a recession, or bailing out because they anticipated one. The odds of a downturn anytime soon? Not very high, at least based on the latest economic reports and forecasts.

The U.S. economy is expected to grow 1.5 percent this year, then 3.4 percent in 2015, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates released Wednesday. One reason is companies are hiring at the fastest pace in eight years.

"This recovery will last several more years," says Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management.

Analysts expect earnings from companies in the S&P 500 to rise 8 percent this year, then 12 percent in 2015, according to S&P Capital IQ.

LOW INTEREST RATES

Interest rates are low, and that's been great for stocks. They help lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. They also hold down interest payments on bonds, making stocks look more attractive by comparison.

Many investors expect the Federal Reserve to start raising short-term rates in the middle of next year. If the Fed keeps the hikes small, the stock market might shrug it off.

That's what happened in the last round of Fed hikes, in 2004. The S&P 500 gained 9 percent that year.

Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, notes that the short-term rates that helped drag stocks down at the end of the last seven bull markets were all higher than 4 percent. With the Fed holding those rates near zero, it could take many hikes for borrowing costs to rise enough to cause damage.

BUYBACK BOOM

One of the biggest forces in the stock rally so far is companies buying back their own shares. Companies in the S&P 500 have spent $1.9 trillion on buybacks since the bull market began in March 2009, according to Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

By creating more demand for stocks, buybacks have kept prices rising even as other big investors sell. Mutual funds, investment brokers, foreigners and pension funds have been net sellers of stocks over most of the last five years, according to the Fed.

Companies have pulled back sharply from their near-record buying in the first quarter, but their buybacks are still pushing up prices. And companies in the S&P 500 still have more than $1.1 trillion in cash, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

BEAR CASE

STOCKS NOT CHEAP

It's fine to forecast big profit gains well into the future, but what if prices fully reflect expected gains?

That's what many bears think. They cite the price-earnings ratio, or the price of a stock divided by its earnings per share. If a share costs $100 and the company is expected to earn $5 per share in the coming year, the P/E ratio is 20.

The S&P 500 now trades at 15 times what companies are expected to earn over the next 12 months, according to FactSet. That is slightly above the 10-year average of 14.1.

The problem is, P/Es are often not reliable gauges of stock value. They are based on just one year's earnings, which can rise and fall along with the economy.

Many experts believe a better P/E is a "cyclically adjusted" ratio, which averages earnings over 10 years.

It is currently 26. That's far below the peak of 44 it reached in the late 1990s, but it's still very high. Since the end of World War II, the average is 18.3.

THOSE COMING RATE HIKES

The Fed may be able to raise rates slowly without damaging the economy and stock markets. But its record isn't entirely reassuring.

Three of the past five bull markets ended after the Fed increased rates.

If the central bank finds itself scrambling to contain inflation and has to raise rates sharply, stocks could fall 20 percent. Inflation doesn't appear to be a problem right now. But that could change fast if the economy heats up.

STRUGGLING ECONOMIES ABROAD

U.S. companies rely more than ever on foreign economies remaining healthy. Unfortunately, many of those economies are stumbling.

The 18 countries that share the euro didn't grow at all last quarter. China is slowing rapidly and Japan shrank 7 percent compared with a year earlier.

Most economists expect the U.S. to shrug off the troubles abroad. But not everyone.

David Levy, an economist, predicted the last U.S. recession with uncanny precision. He says another one is coming next year. The cause: Downturns elsewhere, not domestic trouble.

Even if he's wrong, slowing economies overseas will still matter since companies in the S&P 500 generate nearly half their sales abroad.

Solid apple crop expected in Northern New England

MONTPELIER, Vt. -- A cold winter and trees still weary from last season's massive apple crop have Northern New England growers eyeing a decent but not spectacular harvest this year.

Early season varieties — like Paula Red — are already ripening, prompting pick-your-own orchards to open this weekend or next week.

Vermont, the second biggest producer of apples in New England after Massachusetts, produced about 850,000 bushels of apples last year, and experts predict this year's yield will be close to that. But some orchards are reporting a smaller crop of some varieties that produced bountiful numbers last year.

"This year's crop is a little bit down, and it's totally variable across the state, and it's variable within orchards even," said Terence Bradshaw, tree fruit and viticulture specialist at the University of Vermont. "It's really two factors. One is that the trees put out so much energy producing last year's just incredible crop. The other thing is, yeah, we did have a cold winter."

Genny Boyer, of Boyer's Orchard in Monkton, estimates they're down about a third in McIntosh apples from last year. But all the other varieties — Empire, Cortland, Northern Spy — are doing well, she said.

"The McIntosh just overproduced last year. It just went to town last year, and in fact, we gave to every food shelf we could," she said. "It was just a whopper this last year, just a whopper, and most of the orchards around this area had the same problem."

Nationally, the harvest is predicted to hit more than 259 million bushels, an 8 percent increase over last season and the third-largest haul, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The U.S. Apple Association predicts it could be even higher — almost 264 million bushels. Washington state, the nation's largest grower, looks like it will have a strong season, too, with 162 million bushels harvested.

Dick Fabrizio, owner of Windy Ridge Orchard in North Haverhill, New Hampshire, said the harsh winter is to blame for his crop being down about 30 percent. But, he said, the size and quality of the apples are excellent.

"We had a really cold spell in November, and I don't think the trees hardened up in time," Fabrizio said. "Having 70 mornings below zero doesn't help matters."

"You normally have a heavy year and a light year, and we were due for a light year this year," he said.

New Hampshire growers harvested 607,000 bushels in 2013 and are expected to pull down just 381,000 bushels this season, according to the USDA.

At Concord's Carter Hill Orchard, owner Todd Larocque said they're seeing a few light spots in this year's crop, but there are still plenty of apples to pick and to feed into their cider-making operation. Larocque also co-chairs the New Hampshire Growers Cooperative and has been in touch with growers around the state.

"Everyone's got somewhat of a halfway decent crop," Larocque said.

Jeff Timberlake, a co-owner of Ricker Hill Farm in Turner, Maine, said a rainy summer without the perils of hail from thunderstorms has his crop looking "pretty darn nice.

"With all the rain, the sizing has come along really nice," he said.

Adams Apple Orchard & Farm Market in Williston, Vermont, got socked with cold weather in November before the trees went dormant.

"Our crop is down about a third," Scott Adams said. The orchard lost most of its Empire and Paula Red apples but has enough McIntosh, Cortland and other kinds to fill out the season.

Now that the fruit is ripening, growers are keeping their fingers crossed that the weather will hold — without any damaging hail or windstorms — through the fall season, said Steve Justis, executive director of the Vermont Tree Fruit Growers Association.

Associated Press writers Lynne Tuohy in Concord, New Hampshire, and David Sharp in Portland, Maine, contributed to this report.

Atlantic City losing 2 casinos, 5K jobs in 3 days

ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. -- A time few could imagine during the not-too-distant glory days of casino gambling has arrived in Atlantic City, where two casinos will close this weekend and a third will shut down in two weeks.

More than 5,000 workers will lose their jobs in an unprecedented weekend in the seaside gambling resort, leaving many feeling betrayed by a system that once promised stable, well-paying jobs.

The Showboat is closing Sunday, followed by Revel on Monday and Tuesday. Trump Plaza is next, closing Sept. 16. To the thousands who will be left behind, it still seems unreal.

"We never thought this would happen," said Chris Ireland, who has been a bartender at the Showboat since it opened. His wife works there, too, as a cocktail server. Before dinnertime Sunday, neither will have a job.

What makes it even tougher to swallow is that the Showboat — one of four Atlantic City casinos owned by Caesars Entertainment — is still turning a profit. But the company says it is closing Showboat to help reduce the total number of casinos in Atlantic City. Caesars also teamed with Tropicana Entertainment to buy the Atlantic Club last December and close it in January.

"They just want to eliminate competition," Ireland said. "Everyone's in favor of a free market until it doesn't exactly work for them."

Yet many analysts and casino executives say the painful contraction now shrinking Atlantic City's casino market is exactly what the city needs to survive. Since 2006, Atlantic City's casino revenue has fallen from $5.2 billion to $2.86 billion last year, and it will fall further this year. Atlantic City will end the year with eight casinos after beginning the year with 12.

New casinos popping up in an already saturated Northeastern U.S. gambling market aren't expanding the overall pie but are slicing it into ever-smaller pieces. Fewer casinos could mean better financial performance for the survivors.

Resorts Casino Hotel, which was on the verge of closing a few years ago, completed a remarkable turnaround in the second quarter of this year, swinging from a $1.3 million loss last year to a $1.9 million profit this year.

"I truly believe that eight remaining casinos can all do very well when the gambling market is right-sized," said Resorts president Mark Giannantonio.

That may be true, but it is little comfort to workers who are losing their jobs. By the time Trump Plaza shuts down in two weeks, nearly 8,000 jobs — or a quarter of Atlantic City's casino workforce — will be unemployed. A mass unemployment filing due to begin Wednesday is so large it has been booked into the city's convention center.

When casino gambling was approved by New Jersey voters in 1976, it was billed as a way to revitalize Atlantic City and provide stable, lasting jobs. The first casino, Resorts, opened in 1978, kicking off three decades of soaring revenue and employment.

But the Great Recession hit just as new casinos were popping up in neighboring Pennsylvania and New York, cutting deeply into Atlantic City's customer base.

"There was a promise when casinos came in here that these would be good, viable jobs, something you could raise your family on and have a decent life with," said Paul Smith, a cook at the Trump Taj Mahal Casino Resort. "I feel so bad for all these people losing their jobs. It wasn't supposed to be like this."

Mayor Don Guardian says his city is remaking itself as a more multifaceted destination, where gambling is only part of the allure. But he acknowledges the pain this weekend will bring.

"This is going to be a difficult few weeks for many of us in Atlantic City," he said. "People will lose their jobs, and that is never good news. Our hearts go out to our neighbors and friends. We still have difficult waters to navigate."

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BEIRUT: Kidnappers demand a $1 million ransom for a Kuwaiti man abducted in east Lebanon Saturday, the National News Agency said.

The man was staying at a hotel in the eastern town of Baalbek at the time of the kidnapping according to the report.

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Fairbanks among costliest cities to raise a child

ANCHORAGE, Alaska -- Alaska cities are projected to be among the most expensive places in the United States to raise a child born in 2013. That includes Fairbanks, which ranked 10th out of nearly 300 U.S. cities in a recent study.

Middle-income Fairbanks families can expect to pay $334,562 to raise a child from birth to age 18, according to NerdWallet, a San Francisco-based financial analysis company that took nationwide figures from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and adjusted them for the cost of living in 288 indexed cities. The USDA also factors in inflation in the average.

Juneau ranked 16th on the list with a child raised there expected to cost a middle-income family $321,205. Anchorage ranked 22nd with a cost of $311,524. Other Alaska cities were not included, because the Council for Community and Economic Research's cost of living index, which NerdWallet used to make the adjustment, did not include them.

Raising a child in Manhattan is projected to cost the most of any city on the NerdWallet list, an estimated $540,514, nearly $111,000 more than the second-place city, Honolulu, with a cost of $429,635. Cities in the Midwest and Texas ranked as the lowest-costing, and Norman, Oklahoma, and Harlingen, Texas, were estimated to be the cheapest at just less than $200,000.

The index-adjusted costs are based on the USDA's nationwide average cost of $245,340 to raise a child, factoring in expenses like food, housing, day care and education. Families were spending the same proportion of money on each of the expenses as in years past, the USDA said, but the overall cost had increased 1.8 percent from the previous year's study. The annual cost for a child born in 2013 is expected to range from $12,800 to $14,970, according to the USDA.

While the USDA's average is informative, it does not tell the whole story of child-rearing costs across the country, said Divya Raghavan, an analyst with NerdWallet. For a specific location, the cost of raising a child can vary by as much as $340,000, Raghavan said.

"The USDA, it's a nice ballpark figure to have, but our analysis gives a more concrete number, gives people a more accurate representation of what it'll actually cost them," she said.

It was not a surprise that cities in the northeastern U.S. and California would rank highest, but people probably underestimate the cost of shipping goods to places like Alaska and Hawaii that are passed onto consumers, Raghavan said.

The USDA also identified housing-related costs as the single largest cost related to raising children for a middle-income family, amounting to 30 percent of child-rearing costs for families nationwide.

Study: Novel heart failure drug shows big promise

A new study reports one of the biggest potential advances against heart failure in more than a decade. Doctors say that a first-of-a-kind, experimental drug cut the chances of death or hospitalization by about 20 percent.

The drug, made by Switzerland-based Novartis, does not have a name yet and is just called LCZ696. If it wins federal approval, doctors say it could quickly change care for more than half of the 6 million Americans and 24 million people worldwide with heart failure.

The study involved nearly 8,500 people and was stopped early once independent monitors saw the Novartis drug was better.

Results were discussed Saturday at a cardiology conference in Barcelona and published by the New England Journal of Medicine.